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al-Baghdadi seeks revenge - more terrorists attacks expected

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al-Baghdadi seeks revenge - more terrorists attacks expected

PostAuthor: Anthea » Mon Apr 29, 2019 10:37 am

From 9/11 to Sri Lanka: the terrorists’ deadly message we have failed to grasp

The funerals are over, the investigation continues and the blame game begins and media attention shifts away. This time the victims were Catholic worshippers and patrons of luxury hotels in Sri Lanka. A month ago they were Muslim worshippers in New Zealand, shot by a white supremacist as they prayed

It is almost two decades since attacks launched by al-Qaida on New York, the Pentagon and Washington announced a new era of mass-casualty terrorism. Such violence has long been with us all, of course. Terrorism in its modern form can trace its roots back to the 19th century. The 1970s saw hundreds of terrorist bombings, shootings and hijackings in the US. The 1990s were bloody, too.

But the era that began with the 2001 attacks brought something else. The rapidity with which we now learn of violence thousands of miles away, the graphic images and testimony to which we are exposed, or seek out, and the unprecedented scale of the violence combine to give an old threat a new immediacy. Terrorism is part of all our lives – as terrorists want it to be. We know much more about extremist violence than we have ever done. So what can we learn from this latest tragedy?

Our view of terrorism is too restricted

Every time there is a new attack, there is surprise. One explanation is that we suffer from a form of willed amnesia about violent extremism. Perhaps because terrorism is so rarely experienced personally it often seems that the level of fear we feel is determined by little more than the last thing that we read or saw that involved terrorists. So, for many people, the background to the Sri Lanka bombings was the expulsion of Islamic State from its last redoubts in Syria last month. Thus the sense that this was somehow unexpected.

The loss of its last territories was a major defeat for ISIS. It will find it much more difficult to organise terrorist attacks in its heartland and further afield without the extensive infrastructure, lucrative opportunities for taxation and looting, and a relatively secure enclave where volunteers could be trained and operations planned. Its failures are now blatant. The international boundaries it boasted of smashing forever remain. Previous caliphates spanned centuries. This one lasted less than five years. But though the group’s ideology and attraction have been undermined, it has not disappeared.

No one with any knowledge of how extremist ideologies evolve would have expected that its complex mix of conspiratorial politics, radical theology, sectarianism and apocalyptic prediction would have lost all power to convince overnight. The bombings in Sri Lanka are bloody evidence of this.

We don’t know when ISIS became involved in the attack, but it is very likely that it was instrumental in turning a ramshackle group focused solely on defacing or destroying Buddhist statues in January into one capable of launching last week’s bombings. This means an intervention within the past few months, when ISIS’s final territorial defeat was well under way. A deeper understanding of how the group works, grounded in a longer-term perspective, would have prevented false hopes that the hydra was slain.

The same is true of any surprise that such an attack should occur in South Asia. Once, events there were a major preoccupation of western decision-makers. Since the death of Osama bin Laden in Pakistan in 2011, it has disappeared into a news and policy black hole. The multiple militant groups may no longer pose an obvious threat to the west, but it is said 7,664 people were killed in terrorist attacks in the region in 2017. If we had paid more attention in recent years, last Sunday’s atrocities would have been less of a shock.

We still don’t understand radicalism

We know there is no “terrorist” gene. The number of secular attackers over the decades, and the wave of rightwing violence based on “race” or ethnic identity, not faith, suggests that religion is an insufficient answer. Many religious attackers are not observant at the beginning of the radicalisation process. Some aren’t at the end either. There are examples of European extremists who had used drugs, liked nightclubs and had girlfriends before recruitment by ISIS who never fully abandoned their previous ways.

The brutally simple response is that there is no single answer.Individuals are drawn into terrorism in the same way they are drawn into all sorts of other extreme ways of behaving. Many routes can lead to the same result. Some of the attackers in Sri Lanka were wealthy and educated. This has surprised some. There is no link between poverty and extremist actions or thinking. Nor is education a predictor. There are extremists with doctorates, and others who are barely literate.

There is also much variation globally. Attackers in Europe have different profiles from those in the Middle East or in the US.

One general rule is that the process of radicalisation is a progressive one, always gradual, though it can be rapid. It usually involves a charismatic leader, a simple idea that resolves a profound personal crisis, a binary narrative that answers a particular grievance, a group of friends, relatives or other associates who reinforce each other’s behaviour creating a feedback loop of greater separation from the rest of a community, society and nation. Few set out to be a suicide bomber. A recent study of Saudi recruits to Isis found that only one in 10 signed up for martyrdom.

Crucially, someone vulnerable to radicalisation at one moment in their life may be much less so just months later. A key element in the explanations of former terrorists for their own actions – as well as in accounts given by Nazi mass killers and others – is that their acts are necessary to head off a catastrophic outcome for their community, that they are an obligation for any rational individual. Combine this with the total dehumanisation of the victims – another product of groupthink, separation and propaganda – and you are already a long way to mass murder, whether in a death camp, through an artificial famine, by a mob armed with knives and axes, or a multiple suicide bombing.

All politics is local, and so is all (successful) extremism

For more than 20 years, our vision of Islamic extremist atrocities has been distorted by the events of 9/11, which involved a team of attackers from the Middle East striking in the US. But terrorists rarely come from overseas to attack, as they did then. The vast majority launch their operations close to where they live, often only a short journey in a car, train, rickshaw or by foot. In Afghanistan, internal intelligence assessments have shown that most attacks were made by people living less than a mile from their target.

The Sri Lanka bombings show this. We know the identities of four bombers. The leader of the network was from a village three hours’ drive from Colombo, the capital, where all but one attack occurred. Two brothers lived in an upmarket neighbourhood of the city, and may well have been familiar with the luxury hotels they bombed. The fourth had studied in Britain and Australia, but lived in the capital too.

Even when bombers succeed in reaching jihadist groups to get training, their success often depends on the advantages that come with attacking targets on their home turf. As Scott Atran, an anthropologist and expert in extremism, noted in the Guardian last week, all but one attack by ISIS in Europe in 2014 failed owing to a lack of local contacts. When, a year later, Isis sent operatives into Europe who could engage an extensive network of overlapping and pre-existing social ties among families, friends, workmates and petty criminal bands clustered in particular neighbourhoods, the result was carnage.

The Muslim community in Sri Lanka has long been marginalised politically, and often economically too. In recent years there has been a sharp rise in sectarian tensions, mainly a result of the emergence of militant Buddhist groups.

Then there is the legacy of 26 years of a brutal civil war. Though this was fought out on ethnic, not religious, lines, it nonetheless left a legacy of violence and trauma which should not be underestimated. The island nation was fertile ground for ISIS. Its leaders know that a global ideology only becomes truly dangerous when it is adopted by local actors. We should remember that too.

Counter-terrorism is local too

To say that terrorist attacks depend on security failings is a truism. But the shortcomings that allowed the Easter Sunday bombings in Sri Lanka appear egregious. Veteran insurgents returning from Syria were not watched, let alone detained or questioned.

Suspects linked to a makeshift training camp raided in January were not investigated, despite the seizure of detonators and explosives. At least one of the bombers was arrested, then released. Police were told informally about the suspects by Indian counterparts as early as December. Three formal warnings in April were not passed on to key decision-makers.

There are reasons for these shortcomings. The Sri Lankan state is deeply dysfunctional and its security establishment riven by faction and feuds. The prime minister and the president are barely speaking. There were even rows over who would join national security committee meetings in the hours after the bombings. The same divisions run through the police, the military and the intelligence services.

Intelligence agencies around the world, like armies, reflect the strengths and weaknesses in any given society or state. A rotten political system will have rotten security services. If most terrorism is a local phenomenon that is networked into a bigger global system, so is counter-terrorism.

ISIS knows this. Such organisations are dynamic, mobile and innovative. The extremists are opportunists, exploiting vulnerabilities, then moving elsewhere to find others.

Violent Islamic extremism will fail, so violent Islamic extremism will continue

The fundamental problem for Islamic militant groups is that every time they have tried to seize and hold land – their ultimate aim, for without the caliphate the new society they dream of cannot be created – their efforts have ended in failure.

Many jihadi strategists recommend spectacular attacks to frighten enemies, mobilise supporters and polarise those in between. This will weaken state structures sufficiently for them to be destroyed, allowing a chaotic and bloody vacuum that can be exploited to build a new Islamic entity.

The challenge for the militants is that this can only succeed in places where the state is already weak – Iraq after the 2003 US-led invasion, Afghanistan in the 1990s, the Sahel – the transition zone between the Sahara in the north and the African savannahs in the south – today. Anywhere else, militants may have initial success, even seizing territory, but will eventually be rejected by local populations and rolled up by security services.

The recent Isis so-called caliphate is a good example of what goes wrong. Isis made too many enemies, too quickly. Importantly, it could never do otherwise, given the nature of its ideology. The group’s obsessive hatred of Shia Muslims precluded expansion into areas where Sunni Muslims were few. Its brutality meant loyalty was either coerced or gained from shattered, traumatised local communities who feared their own government more than the jihadists. The threat they posed could never be tolerated by regional and neighbouring states, while the long-range attacks against the west prompted an inevitable reaction that mobilised formidable firepower. Taken together, this meant the caliphate was never likely to survive for very long.

This is the pattern since modern Islamic militancy emerged in the Middle East in the early 1970s. Local campaigns have periodically burst on to the international stage, sometimes taking a central but transient role in global events, but always being dispatched eventually to the shadows of the periphery. This is where al-Qaida now lurks. It is where ISIS is heading.

So the good news is that Islamic militancy will not achieve a breakthrough any time soon. The remaking of the world dreamed of by extremists will not happen – happily for everyone else, wherever they are.

But this means bad news, too: the extremists’ violence will continue to bring horror into the lives of innocents for the foreseeable future.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/ ... ngs-terror
Last edited by Anthea on Mon Apr 29, 2019 8:46 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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al-Baghdadi seeks revenge - more terrorists attacks expected

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Re: The terrorists’ deadly message we have failed to grasp

PostAuthor: Anthea » Mon Apr 29, 2019 8:36 pm

ISIS 'leader' in first video for five years

Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi has not been seen on video for five years

A man believed to be the leader of the Islamic State group has made a rare camera appearance vowing to seek revenge for its loss of territory.

Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi has not been seen since 2014, when he proclaimed from Mosul the creation of a "caliphate" across parts of Syria and Iraq.

In this new footage, he acknowledges defeat at Baghuz, the group's last stronghold in the region.

It is not clear when the video was recorded. ISIS says it was shot in April.

The footage was posted on the militant group's al-Furqan media network.

What does he say?

According to news agency Reuters, Baghdadi says the Easter Sunday Sri Lanka attacks were carried out as revenge for the fall of the Iraqi town of Baghuz.

He also says that he has had pledges of allegiance from militants in Burkina Faso and Mali, and talks about the protests in Sudan and Algeria - claiming that jihad is the only solution to "tyrants". Both countries have seen their long-term rulers overthrown this month.

However, Baghdadi's image disappears towards the end of the video and an audio recording of him discussing the Sri Lanka attacks is played instead, suggesting that this part was recorded after the main video was filmed.

Baghdadi - an Iraqi whose real name is Ibrahim Awwad Ibrahim al-Badri - was last heard from in an audio recording last August.

At the time, he appeared to be trying to shift attention away from his group's crippling losses, BBC Middle East correspondent Martin Patience says.

But this latest 18-minute video addresses the losses head on.

"The battle for Baghuz is over," he says, before adding: "There will be more to come after this battle."

He also reportedly says the group is fighting a "battle of attrition".

Defeated, but not giving in
Analysis by BBC security correspondent Frank Gardner

For his hardcore followers, there is almost as much symbolism in this video as there is content.

The underlying message is not just one of survival against the odds. The optics here are vintage Osama Bin Ladin: the jihadist leader squatting cross-legged in an anonymous room beside a short, personalised, paratrooper version of an AK assault rifle, the quasi-military fishing waistcoat, the attentive companions calmly discussing plans, and the long, prematurely ageing grey beard (he is only 47).

Over the last five years, Islamic State has largely eclipsed al-Qaeda on the media front. At the same time, IS has been reaching out to potential jihadist affiliates in areas of Africa and Asia that have previously looked to al-Qaeda for support.

The overriding aim of this video is clear: to show that despite its resounding military defeat ISIS has survived and that its leader, with a $25m bounty on his head, is still at large.

What happened to the 'caliphate'?

At its peak, IS ruled over 88,000 sq km (34,000 sq miles) stretching across the Iraq-Syria border.

But by 2016 it was a group in retreat. The next year, it lost Mosul in Iraq, depriving Baghdadi and his followers of the city where they had declared the caliphate's creation.

Four maps showing how the area under ISIS control has shrunk

In October, they were driven from Raqqa, in Syria.

They continued to lose territory throughout 2018, culminating in the group retreating to Baghuz.

The Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) declared they had taken control of the town, announcing the end of the five-year "caliphate" in March 2019.

Who is Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi?

Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi was born in 1971 in Samarra, Iraq.

As a child he is said to have had a passion for Koranic recitation and religious law, chastising members of his own family for falling short of his stringent religious standards.

But it was during his time in graduate school, when he was completing a Master's and PhD in Koranic Studies at Iraq's Saddam University for Islamic Studies, that he became involved with hardline Islamist groups.

By the end of 2000 he had embraced Salafist jihadism, and would go on to become involved with al-Qaeda in Iraq (AQI) - from which the Islamic State militant group was born.

Since his 2014 public appearance he has remained silent for long periods, punctuated only by unconfirmed reports of his death and a few unverified audio recordings.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-48098528
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Re: al-Baghdadi seeks revenge - more terrorists attacks expe

PostAuthor: Anthea » Mon Apr 29, 2019 9:49 pm

ISIS chief Baghdadi makes first
video appearance since 2014


ISIS leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi purportedly shown in a new video published by ISIS media on Telegram, April 29, 2019

Video footage purportedly showing Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, leader of the Islamic State (ISIS) group, emerged on jihadist social media platforms on Monday, his first public appearance in five years.

In the 18-minute clip, Baghdadi said the recent terrorist attacks in Sri Lanka, which killed more than 250 people, were an act of revenge for the group's defeat in Syria's Baghouz.

The US-backed Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) seized the last sliver of ISIS territory in Syria's Baghouz, Deir ez-Zor province, on March 23.

He said the Sri Lanka attacks are “part of the consequence the Crusaders and their descendants have been waiting for … Praise be to God, they [the victims] also include Americans and Europeans."

"We also congratulate the unified in Sri Lanka for their allegiance and joining the caliphate. We recommend them to stay with God the Almighty and the One, and be thorns in the hearts of the Crusaders,” he added.

Published by ISIS media arm Al-Furqan on messaging app Telegram, the footage shows 47-year-old Baghdadi seated next to an AK-47 assault rifle – a pose reminiscent of images of Al-Qaeda leader Osama bin Laden.

It is not clear when or where the footage was taken, but several contemporary references in Baghdadi's speech indicate it was very recent.

“The war of Islam and its followers against the crusaders and their followers is a long one,” Baghdadi said, claiming the group has now resumed its earlier insurgency tactics.

The battle for Baghouz demonstrated the “barbarism and brutality” of the West and the “courage, steadfastness and resilience of the nation of Islam.”

“This steadfastness shocked the hearts of the Crusaders in what increased their rage.”

He thanked ISIS fighters killed defending the group's last territorial holdout. “Their brothers will not forget their sacrifices,” he said.

In this still from an 18-minute clip posted by ISIS media on messaging app Telegram, Baghdadi is purportedly shown reading documents about ISIS activities across the world. This document reads: "Yemen Villayet: Monthly Report." April 29, 2019. Photo: ISIS media / Telegram

He praised the group’s long reach and ability to strike at targets worldwide.

“This proves the unity, stability, vigilance, and perception of the Mujaheddin about the requirements of the war as well as their understanding of reality they live in,” he said.

He also praised foreign fighters who joined the group, calling on supporters to attack the "Crusaders" - specifically France - and welcomed recent pledges of allegiance by militant groups in Africa.

“Regarding the pledging allegiance from your brothers Burkina Faso and Mali, I congratulate them for the allegiance and their enrollment in the ranks of the caliphate,” Baghdadi said.

“We ask God Almighty to protect them and our brother Abu Walid al-Sahrawi [leader of the Islamic State in the Greater Sahara], and I advise them to intensify their attacks on the Crusading France and its allies.”

In this still from an 18-minute clip posted by ISIS media on messaging app Telegram, Baghdadi is purportedly shown seated with several lieutenants. April 29, 2019. Photo: ISIS media / Telegram

Baghdadi also touched on the ongoing Algerian and Sudanese protests, calling on the protesters to embrace jihad (holy war).

“Another highlighting event was the fall of Algeria’s and Sudan’s tyrants. However, unfortunately and sadly people still do not understand why they go out [to protest] and what they want,” he said.

“The replacement of a tyrant with another tyrant brings the worst crimes and murders to Muslims. We tell them and remind them that the only path to overcome these tyrants is the jihad for the sake of Allah.”

“Jihad leads to the suppression of tyrants, and dignity and pride because only sword can be useful against tyrants. So, they have to return to God Almighty,” Baghdadi added.

The ISIS chief is also seen examining "monthly reports" about the group's activities in different countries, including Yemen, Sudan, and even Turkey.

The one-time “caliph” has not been seen in public since he announced the foundation of the ISIS statelet at the al-Nuri mosque in Mosul in 2014.

Video posted on a militant website on July 5, 2014, purports to show ISIS leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi delivering a sermon at a mosque in Mosul, northern Iraq. File photo: ISIS media / AP

Several unconfirmed reports in recent years claimed he was killed in an airstrike. Others said he was hiding out in Iraq’s desert province of Anbar.

At the height of its power between 2014 and 2016, ISIS controlled an area roughly the size of Great Britain, spread across Iraq and Syria. The group was declared defeated in Iraq in December 2017. However, a spate of attacks, kidnappings, and ambushes suggest an insurgency is already underway.

http://www.rudaw.net/english/world/29042019
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Re: al-Baghdadi seeks revenge - more terrorists attacks expe

PostAuthor: Anthea » Thu May 02, 2019 9:13 am

4 possibilities for Baghdadi’s location

Husham al-Hashmi, an Iraqi expert in terrorist and extremist groups, believes Islamic State (ISIS) leader Abu Bakir al-Baghdadi’s whereabouts can likely be narrowed down to just four locations following his first video appearance in almost five years

“Iraq since September 2018 through a special cell formed with US Special Operations Command has been monitoring, looking for al-Baghdadi. They have up to now succeeded in eliminating 13 out of 17 possible locations,” Hashmi told Rudaw English on Wednesday.

The possible locations are the deserts of Iraq’s western Anbar, Iraq’s Wadi Houran — a riverbed in Anbar — or in Syria’s mid-east Homs desert. Baghdadi could also be heading elsewhere — toward the so-called “Mohammed Peninsula”, a term found in Islamic discourse referring to the Saudi peninsula.

On Monday, Baghdadi appeared in a new video that was widely circulated across Islamist propaganda outlets. It was only his second confirmed appearance since 2014 when he released video proclaiming the ISIS caliphate from Mosul.

Baghdadi, surrounded by his lieutenants, remained defiant, emphasizing the group’s struggle continues and that they haven’t lost. He focused on a war of attrition and hit-and-run insurgency, implicitly admitting ISIS can no longer hold territory.

The group’s last bastion of Baghouz, eastern Syria, was liberated by the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces on March 23. A large number of the ISIS fighters and their families surrendered. Many detained ISIS wives remain committed to the group’s ideology.

Nevertheless, many fighters had long been disillusioned with their absent leader, deserting and accusing Baghdadi of betraying the cause.

“Baghdadi tried to relieve the anger and pain that members of the organization suffered from in Baghouz by talking about the latest operations in Sri Lanka and Saudi Arabia, which he dubbed ‘revenge operations’,” Hashimi argued.

The security expert believes Baghdadi’s words will embolden ISIS loyalists.

“Yes. The appearance of Baghdadi will give a charge of hope to supports, intensify their response to him, foil the widening of schisms and rebellion, and decrease the blaming and dissatisfaction of followers for his long absence. It also nullifies rumors of him going far away from the Iraqi and Syrian geography,” argued Hashimi.

As of now, the only Iraqi official to react publicly is Prime Minister Adil Abdul-Mahdi. Speaking at a press conference with German Chancellor Angela Merkel, the premier admitted ISIS hasn’t been fully defeated.

“We agree with the viewpoint that Daesh hasn’t been totally defeated, but it has received big crippling blows,” the PM said from Berlin on Tuesday, using the Arabic acronym for ISIS.

Abdul-Mahdi’s predecessor, Haider al-Abadi, declared ISIS defeated in December 2017.

“Now, Baghdadi appears in an isolated, unknown location. It doesn’t show where he is, and it doesn’t show that he is among supporters like he appeared for the first time in Mosul. This is proof to what we say, 'A big defeat was dealt to Daesh',” the premier claimed.

ISIS will now try to reorganize and commit further actions similar to Saudi Arabia and Sri Lanka, argued Abdul-Mahdi.

“However, there is a clear regression. … Daesh capabilities and resources have greatly regressed. We are very proud of this achievement,” he added.

Despite the lack of direct information concerning Baghdadi’s location, Iraq will continue to fight extremists, he said.

“This doesn’t change the evaluations that we have settled on. This is proof that we should continue our unity and cooperation to eradicate Daesh,” Abdul-Mahdi said.

ISIS is leading clandestine operations, and it is regrouping, especially in the no man’s land areas between Iraqi army and Peshmerga forces. The group is especially brazen in Makhmour, where it treks through villages and meets locals when they collect truffles.

They have also resumed assassination and kidnapping operations, mainly targeting village mukhtars and security personnel.

Colin P. Clarke, an associate political scientist at RAND and writer of “After the Caliphate”, wrote a piece published in Foreign Policy on Tuesday arguing the aim of the video is “rallying” supporters and “edging” ISIS militants towards action, including lone-wolf terrorist attacks.

Baghdadi is showing that he is alive, but he also insists on the continuation of jihad and the global reach of his organization, from Africa to Asia, Clarke argued. However, Baghdadi lacks the long-term strategic vision for his group, claimed Clarke.

“Indeed, Baghdadi may simply be akin to other CEOs, busy with the day-to-day details of managing the organization but lacking a more comprehensive and strategic vision for how to adapt to a changing landscape,” argued Clarke.

In the video, Baghdadi makes little or no mention of Iraq and Syria, large swaths of territory his group had controlled at their peak in late 2014.

The US Department of State is offering $25 million for information that leads to the arrest or conviction of Baghdadi through its Rewards for Justice Program.

http://www.rudaw.net/english/world/30042019
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