Turkey’s opposition fragments ahead of March local elections

[Anthea]

Turkey angry over Kurdish tweet

Turkey on Thursday summoned Sweden's ambassador to lodge an angry protest over a video posted by a Kurdish group in Stockholm that depicted President Recep Tayyip Erdogan swinging by his legs from a rope

The diplomatic spat threatened to set back Sweden's efforts to break down NATO member Turkey's resistance to its bid to join the Western defence alliance in response to Russia's invasion of Ukraine.

The ambassador was summoned a day after the Kurdish Committee of Sweden compared Erdogan to Italy's late dictator Benito Mussolini in a tweet.

The Fascist ruler was hung upside down after his execution in the closing days of World War II.

"History shows how dictators end up," the group wrote above a video showing pictures of Mussolini's 1945 execution and then a dummy painted to look like Erdogan swinging on a rope.

"It is time for Erdogan to resign. Take this chance and quit so that you don't end up hanging upside down on (Istanbul's) Taksim Square."

The tweet came as Turkey piles pressure on Sweden and fellow NATO hopeful Finland to clamp down on Kurdish groups it views as "terrorists".

Sweden has a larger Kurdish diaspora and a bigger dispute with Turkey.

Ankara has dug in its heels during protracted negotiations that hinge on the extent to which Sweden is ready to meet Turkey's demand to extradite Kurdish suspects and prosecute groups such as the Rojava Committee.

It lashed out furiously Thursday at both the Kurdish Committee and what it deemed as Stockholm's soft response to the tweet.

- 'Open debate' -

Erdogan's chief spokesman said Turkey condemned the Kurdish group "in the strongest possible terms".

"We urge the Swedish authorities to take necessary steps against terrorist groups without further delay," spokesman Fahrettin Altun tweeted.

His message came in direct response to a tweeted statement from Sweden's Foreign Minister Tobias Billstrom condemning the video.

Stockholm supports "an open debate about politics" but "distances itself from threats and hatred against political representatives", Billstrom wrote.

"Portraying a popularly elected president as being executed outside city hall is abhorrent," the Swedish diplomat wrote.

Billstrom's message did little to appease Ankara.

The Turkish foreign ministry summoned the Swedish ambassador for a dressing down that included accusations of Stockholm going back on its past promises to Ankara.

"Our expectation is that the perpetrators of this action are found," a diplomatic source said.

The Anadolu state news agency then announced that Turkey's parliament speaker had revoked an invitation for his Swedish counterpart to visit Ankara next Tuesday.

The angry exchange over a tweet came less than a month after Billstrom paid a cordial visit to Turkey in an effort to get the NATO membership bid over the line.

The Swedish government has since signalled that it has reached the limit of what it can do to meet Erdogan's demands before Turkey's next election -- now expected some time before June.

Turkey has been battling a decades-long insurgency against the outlawed Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK) that has claimed tens of thousands of lives.

But it has also used its fight against the PKK to justify prosecuting Kurdish politicians and support groups.

Turkey's top court is now weighing whether to ban the country's main Kurdish-backed party before the polls.

https://www.rudaw.net/english/middleeas ... y/13012023

[Anthea]

OOPS!

Kurds in Sweden are doing themselves no favor

The Tweet/photo was totally PUERILE

Are Kurds in Sweden so out of touch with what is happening that they are totally unaware of the Peoples’ Democratic Party (HDP) in Turkey

Perhaps Swedish Kurds are unaware of the large number of HDP politicians Turkey has arrested

Or the fact that the very existence of the HDP hangs in the balance

Erdogan stands for re-election in a few months and there is a good chance that Turkey will close down the HDP prior to the elections

[Anthea]

Click Image to Enlarge:

Hanging of Erdogan effigy
kurdistan24.net

The hanging of an effigy of Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan showing him dangling by his legs from a rope in Stockholm does not warrant a criminal investigation, prosecutors said Monday

"A decision has been taken not to initiate a preliminary investigation," a spokeswoman for Sweden's Prosecution Authority told AFP, providing no further details.

Speaking to newspaper Aftonbladet, public prosecutor Lucas Eriksson said he had received a complaint of "defamation" regarding the effigy.

"But I did not think it could amount to defamation," Eriksson told the newspaper.

The incident further strained relations between Sweden and Turkey, which is currently holding off on ratifying Sweden's NATO accession.

Turkey summoned Sweden's ambassador in Ankara last week after the Kurdish Committee of Sweden compared Erdogan to Italy's late dictator Benito Mussolini.

"History shows how dictators end up," the group wrote on Twitter, accompanied by a video showing pictures of Mussolini's 1945 execution and then a dummy dressed up to look like Erdogan swinging from a rope outside Stockholm's City Hall.

The action was condemned by Swedish Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson and Foreign Minister Tobias Billstrom, who both said it was an attempt to "sabotage" Sweden's NATO membership bid. 

Sweden and its Nordic neighbour Finland dropped decades of military non-alignment last year when they applied to join the Western defence alliance in response to Russia's invasion of Ukraine.

Turkey and Hungary are the only NATO members who have not ratified the bids by votes in parliament.

Ankara argues that Sweden, in particular, has failed to fulfil a series of commitments both countries made at a NATO summit in June.

Erdogan then lifted his objections to their applications in return for pledges to crack down on Kurdish groups that Ankara views as "terrorists".

Sweden has since approved a constitutional amendment that will make it possible to pass tougher anti-terror laws.

On Saturday, Erdogan's foreign policy adviser Ibrahim Kalin told reporters that the country was "not in a position" to ratify Sweden's NATO membership.

https://www.kurdistan24.net/en/story/30 ... rosecutors

[Anthea]

HDP asks to postpone closure case
Wladimir van Wilgenburg

ERBIL (Kurdistan 24) – Turkey’s pro-Kurdish Peoples’ Democratic Party (HDP) on Monday asked the Turkish Constitutional Court to postpone its decision to ban the party after the Turkish elections, planned for June 2023

Co-leader of the People's Democratic Party (HDP), Mithat Sancar, told reporters on Monday that they have applied to the Constitutional Court to decide the outcome of the HDP arrest case after the elections.

"We asked the Constitutional Court to issue its decision on closing the HDP case after the elections," he said.

"The Constitutional Court should stop all proceedings on this case. The authorities want to use this case against the HDP as a tool to threaten us.”

"The Constitutional Court should give us a positive answer as soon as possible," he said.

Moreover, he added that if the Constitutional Court postpones the case, it would strengthen the argument that the Constitutional Court is independent and does not take orders from the Turkish government.

“We have been facing a closure case since June 2021, and this will most probably be finalized in the coming months, before the elections,” the HDP spokesperson said in a press release on January 9, after the Court blocked the HDP’s party funds.

“The prosecutor will set out his views on this case to the Constitutional Court verbally on 10 January 2023. The court will then allow time for us to prepare a verbal rebuttal.”

President Recep Tayyip Erdogan's government has accused the HDP of having ties to the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK), which is banned in Turkey.

The HDP has argued that the Constitutional Court’s earlier decision to block their party funds was politically motivated.

“The MHP, President Erdoğan’s ultranationalist ally, has been aiming at this for a long time. It seems that the court has surrendered to political pressure and has become a tool for directing politics in the run-up to the elections.”

Erdogan’s Justice and Development Party (AKP) fears the HDP could play a kingmaker role.

The HDP in the March 2019 elections supported Republican People’s Party (CHP) candidates in Istanbul, Ankara, and other municipalities in Western Turkey, defeating AKP candidates.

"Erdogan and his allies fear that the HDP may play a similar kingmaker role in the next presidential elections, hence their pressures to totally destroy the HDP before the elections," the HDP statement said in an earlier statement in July.

HDP’s co-chair Pervin Buldan earlier announced that the HDP will run its own candidates because the leaders of six Turkish opposition parties, called the ‘table for 6’, have agreed to put forward a joint presidential candidate, but have not included the HDP in their alliance.

Selahattin Demirtaş, the jailed former co-leader of Turkey's pro-Kurdish Peoples' Democratic Party (HDP), earlier told Kurdistan 24’s Adem Özgür through his lawyer that the HDP always keeps the door open for dialogue and cooperation.

"Although the HDP always keeps the door open for dialogue and cooperation, they have not used this chance until now. Against all these policies to ignore (us), HDP decided to go to the elections with its own presidential candidate, but it did not close its doors completely.”

He called on the Turkish opposition to “meet with the HDP and take step towards reconciliation.”

https://www.kurdistan24.net/en/story/30 ... ase-ruling

[Anthea]

Burning of Quran in Sweden

Turkey has condemned a demonstration involving the burning of Qur’ans in Sweden on Saturday, further inflaming tensions between the two countries amid Stockholm’s Nato bid

The protest in Stockholm, which took place under heavy police protection in front of Turkey’s embassy, gathered about 100 people and a crowd of reporters, Agence France-Presse reported.

Far-right politician Rasmus Paludan, who staged the event, gave an hour-long speech against Islam and immigration before setting fire to a copy of the Qur’an.

A day prior, Turkey’s foreign ministry summoned Sweden’s ambassador over the permission granted to Paludan’s protest. It was the second time Sweden’s ambassador to Turkey has been summoned this month, after having had to answer for a 12 January stunt during which a Kurdish group hung an effigy of Turkey’s president, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, in Stockholm.

Earlier on Saturday, Ankara cancelled a 27 January visit by Sweden’s defence minister, Pål Jonson, intended to be a discussion about Turkey’s refusal to ratify Sweden’s Nato accession.

Turkey’s defence minister, Hulusi Akar, said the meeting was cancelled because it “has lost its significance and meaning”.

Jonson, however, announced the meeting had been postponed after talks with Akar on Friday at the US military base in Ramstein, Germany.

“Our relations with Türkiye are very important to Sweden, and we look forward to continuing the dialogue on common security and defence issues at a later date,” he tweeted on Saturday.

Prior to Paludan’s event on Saturday, Turkey’s foreign minister, Mevlüt Çavuşoğlu, called it a “hate crime” that could not be characterised as freedom of expression, and asked Sweden not to allow the “vile act” to take place.

The Stockholm protest was also denounced by İbrahim Kalın, chief adviser to Erdoğan.

“The burning of the Holy Qur’an in Stockholm is a clear crime of hatred and humanity,” Kalın tweeted. “We vehemently condemn this. Allowing this action despite all our warnings is encouraging hate crimes and Islamophobia. The attack on sacred values is not freedom but modern barbarism.”

Sweden’s government has sought to distance itself from the demonstration, with the foreign minister, Tobias Billström, condemning it on Saturday.

“Islamophobic provocations are appalling,” Billström tweeted. “Sweden has a far-reaching freedom of expression, but it does not imply that the Swedish government, or myself, support the opinions expressed.”

Turkey has proved to be an obstacle to Sweden and Finland’s historic application for Nato membership after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, which marked a reversal of the Nordic countries’ decades of neutrality. Sweden and Finland have gained the approval of 28 Nato members so far, bar Hungary and Turkey.

In November, Hungary’s president, Viktor Orbán, said his parliament would ratify Nato membership for Sweden and Finland in early 2023. But Turkey is still holding back, demanding the extradition of people in Sweden it claims to have links to the Kurdistan Workers’ party (PKK) – designated as a terrorist group by Turkey, the EU and the US – or to banned cleric Fethullah Gülen.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/ ... -in-sweden

[Anthea]

Turkish elections on May 14

President Tayyip Erdogan said Turkey would hold elections on May 14, a month earlier than scheduled, setting up a tight test of his leadership after two decades in power

The president's office released video footage on Sunday of Erdogan announcing the date during a meeting with young voters in the northwestern province of Bursa late on Saturday.

"I am grateful to god that we will be walking side by side with you, our first-time voting youth, in the elections that will be held on May 14," Erdogan told the group.

Opinion polls show the parliamentary and presidential elections will be tight, and will mark Erdogan's biggest test in his two decades at the reins of the regional military power, NATO member and major emerging market economy.

Turkey's presidential and parliamentary elections were scheduled to be held on June 18 but President Erdogan previously signalled that the vote could be brought forward. An official of his AK Party has previously said that an election in June would coincide with the summer holiday season when people are travelling.

https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-ea ... 023-01-22/

[Anthea]

No support for Sweden NATO

Turkey’s president cast serious doubt on NATO's expansion Monday after warning Sweden not to expect support for its bid for membership into the military alliance following weekend protests in Stockholm by an anti-Islam activist and pro-Kurdish groups

President Recep Tayyip Erdogan slammed Rasmus Paludan’s Quran-burning protest on Saturday, saying it was an insult to everyone, especially to Muslims. He was particularly incensed at Swedish authorities for allowing the demonstration to take place outside the Turkish Embassy in Stockholm under “the protection” of security forces.

“It is clear that those who allowed such vileness to take place in front of our embassy can no longer expect any charity from us regarding their NATO membership application,” Erdogan said in his first comments regarding the weekend protests, saying Sweden must have calculated the consequences of permitting Paludan's demonstration.

The burning of Islam's holy book angered people across the political spectrum in Turkey, just as Sweden and Finland appeared on the cusp of NATO membership after dropping their longstanding policies of military nonalignment following Russia's war on Ukraine. Russian President Vladimir Putin now stands to benefit as the potential enlargement of the world’s most powerful military alliance appears to be stymied.

Erdogan also criticized Sweden for allowing pro-Kurdish protests where demonstrators waved flags of various Kurdish groups, including the Kurdistan Workers’ Party, or PKK, which has waged a decades-long insurgency against Turkey. The PKK is considered a terrorist group in Turkey, the European Union and the United States, but its symbols aren’t banned in Sweden.

“So you will let terror organizations run wild on your avenues and streets and then expect our support for getting into NATO. That’s not happening,” Erdogan said, referring to Sweden and Finland’s accession bids for the military alliance. He said if Sweden won’t show respect to NATO-member Turkey or Muslims, then “they won’t see any support from us on the NATO issue.”

A joint memorandum signed by Turkey, Sweden and Finland in June averted a Turkish veto of their membership bid at NATO’s Madrid summit where they confirmed the PKK as a terror group and committed to prevent its activities. Continued protests are infuriating Ankara who has said Sweden must address Turkey's security concerns and demands for the Turkish parliament to ratify their NATO request.

“If they love terror organization members and enemies of Islam so much, we recommend that they refer their countries’ security to them," he added. Several hundred pro-Kurdish protestors walked over a photo of Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan on Saturday and an Erdogan effigy was hung from a lamppost in a previous protest. Turkish officials cancelled bilateral meetings in response.

Swedish officials have stressed that freedom of expression is guaranteed by the Swedish Constitution and gives people extensive rights to express their views publicly, though incitement to violence or hate speech isn’t allowed. Demonstrators must apply to police for a permit for a public gathering. Police can deny such permits only on exceptional grounds, such as risks to public safety. Top Swedish officials have said freedom of expression is crucial to democracy while criticizing Paludan's actions as disrespectful and ones they disagree with.

Anti-Islam activist Paludan, who holds both Danish and Swedish citizenship, established far-right parties in both countries that have failed to win any seats in national, regional or municipal elections. In last year’s parliamentary election in Sweden, his party received just 156 votes nationwide. His burning of the Quran sparked counter-protests in Turkey over the weekend, where demonstrators burned his photograph and a Swedish flag.

https://abcnews.go.com/International/wi ... d-96610783

[Anthea]

Court rejects postponement

The Constitutional Court convened today to discuss the application submitted by the Peoples’ Democratic Party (HDP) requesting that the closure case be postponed until the 2023 elections are over. The court rejected the request by a majority of votes

The Constitutional Court set March 14 for the HDP to make its defense on the merits

A rapporteur of the court asked for the rejection of the HDP's request on Wednesday, claiming that “the court has a good grasp of the case, and the file of the case is sufficiently voluminous.”

The Constitutional Court is currently being asked to order the closure of the HDP, a political party with 56 deputies in Turkey’s parliament. An indictment against the party seeks to ban 451 politicians and party members from organized political activity or membership of political parties for a period of five years and forfeiture of the party’s assets.

On January 5, the Constitutional Court agreed to a request by the chief prosecutor of the Court of Cassation for an interim measure of freezing the party’s bank accounts containing treasury support which political party groups in parliament are entitled to receive.

During the closure process, the Chief Public Prosecutor of the Court of Cassation can present corroborating evidence to the case file, while the HDP can present additional defence. The HDP has already submitted to the Constitutional Court its defence in response to the accusations and HDP officials will make a verbal defence on a day to be scheduled.

After this process, a Constitutional Court rapporteur, who will collect information and documents related to the case, will prepare a report on the merits of the case. In the meantime, the Chief Public Prosecutor of the Court of Cassation and the HDP will be able to submit corroborating evidence or additional written defence.

After the distribution of the report to members of the Supreme Court, the President of the Constitutional Court, Zühtü Arslan, will set a date for a meeting where the members will come together to discuss the closure request.

A 15-person Constitutional Court committee will make a decision in the closure case against the HDP. A 2/3 majority of the members attending the meeting, i.e. 10 out of 15 members, will decide whether the party will be closed pursuant to the Article 69 of the Constitution or whether the party will be partially or completely deprived of treasury aid depending on the severity of the accusations in question.

The final decision will then be notified to the Chief Public Prosecutor of the Court of Cassation and the HDP and will be published by the Official Gazette. Should the Constitutional Court rule that the party members who are facing a political ban caused the closure of the party through their remarks and actions, these party members will not be able to serve as a founder, member, administrator and supervisor of another party for 5 years, starting from the publication of the final decision in the Official Gazette.

[Anthea]

HDP fundraising campaign

The pro-Kurdish Peoples’ Democratic Party (HDP) on Thursday launched a fundraising campaign on social media, calling on its supporters to help the party financially survive the upcoming electoral campaign. The move follows a decision by the country’s top court to freeze the HDP’s funds for the elections

In March 2021, Turkish prosecutor Bekir Sahin filed a lawsuit against the HDP, demanding the closure of the party. The same prosecutor in December asked for HDP’s accounts to be frozen so that it could not receive funds from the government for the upcoming elections in May. He claimed that the pro-Kurdish party could use the money to support the Kurdish rebels - a claim strongly denied by the HDP.

Turkey’s Constitutional Court on January 5 decided to block the HDP’s share of treasury grants paid to parties for electoral campaigns. The party was expected to receive nearly $30 million to finance its campaign.

Hours after the Turkish Constitutional Court unanimously rejected HDP’s request to postpone its closure trial until the presidential and parliamentary elections, the party on Thursday launched a fundraising campaign on social media with the hashtag #HazinemizHalkımız (Our treasure is our people).

The court instead decided to give the HDP an additional 15 days to prepare for its defense against the ruling which blocked its state grants, meaning the party will defend itself on March 14. It is not clear when a final decision regarding the party’s fate will be made.

Pervin Buldan, co-chair of the HDP, said in a video message on Thursday that the decision to freeze the party’s funds is a “political” one. “We consider it important to launch a campaign to help our party stay on its feets,” she said, calling on supporters to donate.

The country is suffering from a financial crisis, making it almost impossible for supporters to donate money to the HDP.

The HDP is accused by some Turkish officials and politicians of being the political wing of the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK), but the party has denied any organic links to the group. Since the PKK is considered a terrorist organization by Ankara, scores of HDP supporters, members and officials have been arrested on terror-related charges.

PKK is an armed group struggling for INDEPENDENCE

The HDP was formed in 2012 by members of the Democratic Regions Party (DBP). Both parties consider themselves pro-Kurdish, and are still in alliance. The HDP is seen as the successor of Democratic Society Party (DTP) which was founded in 2005 but closed by the Turkish Constitutional Court in 2009 for allegedly trying to divide Turkey.

Kurdish-focused parties like the Democratic People’s Party (DEHAP) and People’s Democracy Party (HADEP) have also been banned for alleged links to the PKK.

https://www.rudaw.net/english/middleeas ... /260120231

[Anthea]

What if Erdogan lost election

It might prove to be the most important international election of 2023, and perhaps the most important in the history of the modern Turkish Republic. And as the year begins, polls suggest it may also bring a sea change: After a two-decade-long hold on power, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan faces the real possibility that he may lose

The idea that Turkish voters might show him the door carries huge implications for Turkey, the region and the rest of the world, several experts told Grid. Turkey’s status as a NATO member, a pivotal bridge between Europe, the Middle East and Asia, and Erdogan’s own balancing act between Russia and the West when it comes to Ukraine — all these factors give the country a crucial place on the geopolitical map.

On Erdogan’s watch, relations with the U.S. have deteriorated, as have ties with Europe. Inside NATO, Erdogan has assumed the role of a wild card, complicating the path to membership in the alliance for Sweden and Finland, and demanding concessions from NATO as the West attempts to mount a united front in the face of the Russian threat.

“Turkey is an important country,” Berk Esen, an international relations expert at Sabanci University in Istanbul, told Grid. “It is not one of the top players in the Global South, like China or India or Brazil, but it has a sizable economy, located in between the European and Asian and African continents, and it is a major Western ally, which has been acting in an increasingly maverick manner within NATO. It’s also hosting nearly 4 million [Syrian] refugees.

“So what happens in Turkey does have real ripple effects, first to the Middle East and Europe, but also globally.”

But it’s a crisis at home that has put Erdogan’s long reign in jeopardy. As prices of everyday goods in Turkey have climbed, the president has continued to slash interest rates — turning economic theory on its head and driving prices higher.

Inflation touched a year-on-year high of 85 percent in October, but while other central banks around the world have raised interest rates to help lower inflation, Erdogan has continued to buck the conventional economic wisdom. The result is an inflation rate that, while off October’s highs, is still in the high double digits, battering the incomes of ordinary people.

“For the opposition, the economic crisis has opened up an opportunity for the first time in many years,” said Emre Erdogan, an expert on Turkish elections and professor at Istanbul’s Bilgi University (and no relation to the president).

The mere possibility of Erdogan’s ouster has surprised many observers and politicians around the world. He has survived multiple crises over the past two decades and over time has steadily concentrated more and more power in the president’s office. Erdogan has also populated the bureaucracy with those loyal to him and his right-wing, nationalist political party, and many dissenting voices have been stifled; most private print and television outlets are now owned by companies with close government links.

Esen, from Sabanci University, said Erdogan has transformed Turkey’s democratic government into a “hyper-presidential system,” in which “parliament is no longer that powerful.”

But Turkey is still a democratic country, with an election now expected in mid-May. And Erdogan might lose.

“It hard to guess exactly how things will change as we are still waiting for the announcement of a common opposition candidate,” Esen said. “But we know that it could be a big change if President Erdogan is not successful.”

Turkey — and the war in Ukraine

The main Turkish alliance of opposition parties occupies the center-left ground in Turkish politics — and while the alliance has yet to choose its main candidate, experts tell Grid that it’s much more interested than Erdogan has been in improving relations with Europe and the U.S.

“It certainly depends on who the main opposition nominates,” said Esen. “But if they win, we are likely to see a rapprochement with the West.”

The most immediate global implications will involve the war in Ukraine.

Were Erdogan to go, that “balancing act” might tip decisively in the Ukrainians’ favor. Throughout the war, Erdogan has played, in essence, a double game. On the one hand, he has supplied weapons to Ukraine, sending armed drones that have helped the resistance against Russia. He has also acted as a middleman between Moscow and Kyiv in talks to allow grain shipments to leave Ukrainian ports.

On the flip side, Turkey maintains close ties with Russia, and Erdogan has a close relationship with Russian President Vladimir Putin. Indeed, those ties may have deepened since the war began; as Erdogan’s Western allies have rushed to push Moscow into the economic cold, Turkey has stepped up its trading relationship with Russia.

Between January and July 2022, the value of Russian exports to Turkey stood north of $32 billion — accounting for 15 percent of all Turkish imports. As the West cuts energy ties with Russia, Turkey is among countries that have boosted energy imports from Russia, eyeing cheap resources as its own economy buckles. Diesel supplies from Russia to Turkey, for instance, rose by 25 percent last year, to more than 5 million tons, according to Reuters. Meanwhile, Turkish exports to Russia rose by 45 percent in 2022.

Given the economic dire straits Turkey now finds itself in, a new leader would struggle to sever all ties with Russia. But the post-Erdogan approach would likely change, with Ankara distancing itself from Moscow and stepping up its assistance for Ukraine.

“Under the opposition, Turkey is likely to try to give more support to Ukraine, and move away from Russia, which of course is going to have dramatic consequences for the war,” Esen told Grid.

It’s why, as Professor Erdogan from Bilgi University put it, Putin will be among world leaders paying “close attention” to Turkey’s election.

“There could be a reorienting of Turkish foreign policy” after the poll, he said.

Turkey — and that other war

Beyond Ukraine, that reorienting could impact another conflict zone: Syria.

As Grid has reported, Turkey has had a complicated relationship with its neighbor since the civil war in Syria erupted in 2011. On the one hand, Turkey aggressively supported groups involved in the uprising against the regime of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, but Turkey has also fought a long-running war against Kurdish groups that straddle the Turkish-Syrian border, and when some of those groups were able to build a semi-autonomous enclave in northern Syria, Erdogan went after them.

His particular obsession has been with the People’s Defense Units (YPG), a predominantly Kurdish group that controls a wide swathe of territory in Northeast Syria. The YPG is affiliated with the Kurdistan Worker’s Party (PKK), which has waged an insurgency against the Turkish government for decades, though they deny being directly linked.

The U.S. lists the PKK as a terrorist group — but, to Erdogan’s chagrin, has been providing assistance to the YPG as part of the campaign against ISIS in Syria. U.S. troops continue to operate in YPG-controlled areas of Syria.

Recently, Erdogan has threatened a fresh incursion into Syria to go after the YPG, and those threats have drawn stern warnings from the United States. Erdogan’s answer was a clear sign of both his interests in Syria and disdain for the West: He responded by saying Ankara did not need anyone’s “permission” to deal with what it saw as a security threat.

Life after Erdogan, when it comes to Syria, might well be less fraught in terms of such threats. The opposition, experts told Grid, is likely to be less bellicose and unlikely to carry out such an incursion, as it seeks to mend ties with the West.

Turkey and NATO

A new, reoriented Turkish foreign policy, one that favors Ukraine over Russia, would of course be welcomed within NATO, where Erdogan’s penchant for bashing the West is most noticeable.

This most immediate issue involves the pending expansion of the alliance. To date, NATO’s plans to bring Sweden and Finland into the security grouping — a clear consequence of NATO unity against Russia — have been stymied by Turkey. Last year, when President Joe Biden hosted the Swedish and Finnish leaders at the White House, their membership was presented as an almost foregone conclusion. “This is, in my view and the view of my team, a momentous day,” Biden said at the May 2022 gathering.

Eight months on, the Swedish and Finnish membership applications remain hostage to Erdogan, who has refused to give his assent. New NATO members must be welcomed unanimously; Erdogan has demanded — as recently as last week — that Sweden and Finland extradite dozens of political opponents he calls “terrorists.”

“First of all, they need to extradite nearly 130 terrorists in order for their bids to pass our parliament,” he said. “Unfortunately, they have yet to do this.”

Among those “terrorists” are an exiled Turkish journalist in Sweden whose extradition was blocked last month by Sweden’s top court. Sweden’s Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson addressed the issue recently by pointing out that his government had no choice but to follow the court’s orders. “Turkey sometimes names people that they would like to have extradited from Sweden,” he said, “and it’s well-known that Swedish legislation on that … is very clear: that courts [make] those decisions, there is no room for changing that.”

The troubles at home

Domestically, the principal challenge for Erdogan is that economic mess — with inflation still at punishing levels.

Here, the likely changes — should Erdogan leave power — are perhaps the clearest. A new government is almost certain to reverse Erdogan’s policies and return to conventional tools such as interest rate hikes to tame inflation and bring some measure of economic stability.

Erdogan’s exit could also set the stage for broader political change in Turkey, as the opposition attempts to dismantle the all-powerful executive presidency he has put in place.

“Right now, the president decides, and that’s it,” Professor Erdogan told Grid. “He has in many areas almost absolute power. The major opposition parties have said they want to change this.”

Of course, making any policy changes will first require a victory — and for that, the opposition will need to unify behind a common face. The alliance has yet to choose its candidate, and as one analyst put it, “there are still challenges when it comes to unity.”

The stakes for Turkey and the outside world are enormous, at a moment that is important for another reason: Later this year, Turkey will celebrate its 100th anniversary as a modern state.

As Professor Erdogan said, “It is a very important election, there is no doubt. And it could be a critical moment in Turkey’s future.”

https://www.grid.news/story/global/2023 ... obal-en-GB

[Anthea]

Turkish election campaign in Germany

In the run-up to the presidential and parliamentary elections to be held in Turkey in May, leading figures of the AKP/MHP government are on a campaign tour in Germany, disregarding the guidelines of the German government

These activities became public knowledge after the appearance of AKP MP Mustafa Açıkgöz in a mosque in Neuss on 13 January, who called on his followers to destroy opposition members of the PKK and the Gülen community. However, the extent of election campaign events of the Turkish ruling party in Germany is apparently much greater than is generally known.

The weekly German newspaper, the “Welt am Sonntag”, reported in today’s issue that more than 100 appearances by Turkish government politicians have taken place in mosques and clubhouses in Germany since September.

"What is discussed behind closed doors rarely gets out. And when it does, there are shocking insights like the one on 13 January in Neuss. At that time, the AKP member of parliament Mustafa Acikgöz spoke in a mosque, which is attributed to the right-wing extremist 'Grey Wolves', about 'destroying' supporters of the banned PKK and the Gülen movement, which is considered a terrorist organisation in Turkey. They must be pulled out of the holes they have crawled into, also in Germany," says the article, citing information by journalist Eren Güvercin based in Cologne.

Since 2017, election campaign appearances by foreign politicians have been banned in Germany three months before the vote. The reason for the new regulations were disputes in Germany in the run-up to the Turkish constitutional referendum. Since then, all political appearances by foreign government representatives outside of election campaign periods must be applied for and approved by the federal government ten days in advance.

After the calls for murder by AKP MP Açıkgöz in Neuss, the Foreign Office "invited the Turkish ambassador for a talk" and stated: "Appearances like that of a Turkish MP in Neuss must not be repeated". It was "unequivocally reminded that foreign election campaign events must be approved by us in advance". If Turkish representatives did not play by the rules, consequences would have to be considered, the ministry said.

Nevertheless, appearances by leading AKP politicians have continued to take place in Germany. The Turkish Minister of Agriculture, Vahit Kirişci, who travelled to the capital for "Green Week", met several times in public spaces with his supporters and gave speeches on the upcoming elections. On 20 January, Kirişci spoke at a meeting of the International Union of Democrats (UID), the AKP's lobby organisation in Germany, under the slogan "Turkey's Programme of the Century" about his party's election promises as "Vision 2023".

Turkish Deputy Foreign Minister Yasim Ekrem Serim, who travelled to Germany last week for official talks, met with leaders of Turkish fascist groups, including ADÜTDF chairman Şentürk Doğruyol. The ADÜTDF, the umbrella organisation of Turkish nationalists, which organises itself as an extended arm of the MHP, is being monitored by the Office for the Protection of the Constitution.

[Anthea]

Erdogan plans Iran, Russia, Syria talks

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan suggests that Iran join the tripartite talks to "let there be peace in the region."

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan said that Iran could join the planned talks between Turkey, Russia and Syria at the highest level.

He added on Sunday, at a youth meeting in the Turkish city of Bilecik, that the countries should unite in a trio. "Let Iran also join, let's conduct our talks this way, and let there be peace in the region."

In December, a trilateral summit of defense and intelligence chiefs of Russia, Turkey and Syria in Moscow marked the first meeting between Turkish and Syrian defense ministers in 11 years.

Russian President Vladimir Putin and Erdogan gave their positive assessment to the December talks in a phone call earlier in January.

Putin and his Turkish counterpart discussed on January 16 the normalization of Turkish-Syrian relations in the context of Ankara's initiative to launch consultations, with the participation of Russian, Turkish and Syrian representatives.

They discussed rapprochement between Ankara and Damascus, according to the Kremlin.

"Issues of normalization of Turkish-Syrian relations were discussed, including in the context of Ankara's initiative to launch consultations with the participation of Russian, Turkish, and Syrian representatives," the statement read.

"The practical significance of the joint work of Russia, Turkey, and Iran within the framework of the Astana process of promoting the Syrian settlement was also noted," it added.

https://english.almayadeen.net/news/pol ... ith-russia

A boost for Erdogan and should he succeed, a vote winner

[Anthea]

Turkey's opposition vows democracy

The coalition of six Turkish opposition parties striving to end two decades of rule by President Recep Tayyip Erdogan on Monday reaffirmed a commitment for a return to parliamentary democracy should their alliance win elections that are likely to be held on May 14

In a ceremony in Ankara, the six parties presented their joint 240-page program for the country's post-election future, but did not name a joint candidate to run against Erdogan.

“We will shift to a Strengthened Parliamentary System for a strong, liberal, democratic and just system in which the separation of powers is established,” said Faik Oztrak, a deputy head of the main opposition Republican People’s Party, or CHP. He added that the plan foresees a greater separation of powers including an increased role for parliament and an independent judiciary.

Erdogan, who has been in office since 2003 — first as prime minister and then as president since 2014 — introduced a presidential system in 2018 that abolished the office of the prime minister and concentrated most powers in the hands of the president. The office of the president had been a largely ceremonial post until then.

The opposition has blamed Turkey’s woes, including an economic downturn and an erosion of rights and freedoms, on Erdogan’s system which they say amounts to a “one-man rule.” The presidential system was narrowly approved in a 2017 referendum and was installed following elections in 2018.

The six parties -- known as the “Nation Alliance” or the “Table of Six” — have been meeting for the past year to come up with a joint plan to beat Erdogan and chart a return to a more democratic system. But the six parties’ failure to nominate a joint candidate to run against Erdogan has frustrated opposition supporters.

CHP leader Kemal Kilicdaroglu has hinted a run despite the significant popularity of the mayors of Istanbul and Ankara, who managed to oust Erdogan’s ruling party in local elections in 2019.

The longtime Turkish leader has seen a decline in support due to economic instability and surging inflation but has been engaged in a spending spree, including increases in minimum wages and retirement benefits, to win back votes.

On foreign policy issues, the six parties vowed to “work to complete the accession process” for full membership in the European Union, improve strained ties with the United States “based on mutual trust,” and strive to return to the U.S.-led F-35 fighter jet program. Turkey was kicked out of the project following the Erdogan government’s purchase of Russian-made missile defense systems.

In addition to Kilicdaroglu’s CHP, the opposition alliance is made of Meral Aksener’s nationalist Good Party; Temel Karamollaoglu’s conservative Felicity Party; Gultekin Uysal’s Democrat Party; The Democracy and Progress Party led by Ali Babacan; and Future Party chaired by Ahmet Davutoglu.

Davutoglu and Babacan were co-founders of Erdogan’s ruling party and served in top positions before breaking away from the movement in criticism of Erdogan’s policies.

Excluded from the alliance is the pro-Kurdish Peoples’ Democratic Party, which is the second largest opposition party. That party is facing closure following a severe crackdown by the government for alleged links to outlawed Kurdish militant groups.

https://www.kurdistan24.net/en/story/30 ... s-election

[Anthea]

Presidential elections in May

The upcoming elections are considered to be one of the most significant milestones in Turkey's modern history

The leader of a Turkish opposition party Meral Aksener stated that she had proof that President Recep Tayyip Erdogan would announce on March 10 his intention to move the presidential election to May 14.

"We are receiving information that Mr. Erdogan will call the elections for May 14. The decision will be made on March 10," Yeni Akit daily newspaper quoted Aksener as saying.

Last month, Erdogan declared that he was considering pushing the elections' date forward from June 18 to May 14.

In a related development, Turkish media reported that the elections could be postponed for six to twelve months to allow the country to rebuild following the deadly earthquake.

The elections are supposed to be a litmus test for Erdogan's job performance. It will be the second election since Turkey switched from a parliamentary to a presidential system following a 2017 referendum that granted him broad new powers.

Meanwhile, Turkey's opposition alliance has constantly asserted that they will limit the authority of Erdogan and return democracy to the parliamentary institution in case they win the upcoming elections.

It is worth noting Erdogan has been sitting in the country's top positions since 2003.

Starting as a prime minister, Turkey's leader was elected president in 2014 and has since introduced many laws that expand the position's authority and jurisdiction, most notably in 2017 when he issued constitutional changes that granted him full power in the country.

Erdogan broadened his authority following a failed coup attempt in 2016 that almost placed the country's future in uncertainty.

https://english.almayadeen.net/news/pol ... ctions:-op

[Anthea]

Türkiye to Hold Elections in May

On Wednesday, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan announced that his government plans to hold the presidential and parliamentary elections on May 14, as the country is still recovering from two devastating earthquakes that struck a large swathe of its southern region in early February.

"The time is coming. This nation will do what is necessary on May 14. No credit will be given to those who empty talk," Erdogan told his party members at the parliament.

The Turkish president had earlier said that the elections were to be held on May 14 in order to avoid the seasonal migrations of voters and the university exams in early summer.

In the wake of the two major earthquakes on Feb. 6 that killed more than 45,000 people in the country as of Wednesday and caused huge property losses, Türkiye began to discuss whether or not elections scheduled for May or June should be postponed.

The massive earthquakes, centered in southeastern Türkiye, affected 10 provinces, which were home to more than 13 million people. The tremors also destroyed tens of thousands of buildings, leaving tens of thousands of Turks homeless.

https://www.telesurenglish.net/news/Tur ... -0002.html