Three scenarios for post-coup Sudan

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Sudan coup government leaders arrested

A coup is under way in Sudan, where the military has dissolved civilian rule, arrested political leaders and declared a state of emergency

The coup leader, Gen Abdel Fattah Burhan, blamed political infighting.

Protests have erupted in several cities including the capital Khartoum. Three people are said to have died after being shot by the armed forces.

Military and civilian leaders have been at odds since long-time ruler Omar al-Bashir was overthrown two years ago.

Large numbers of protesters are on the streets of the capital demanding the return of civilian rule, BBC Arabic's Mohamed Osman reports from Khartoum.

More protesters are expected to join the crowds after calls for action by political parties and professional unions, our correspondent says. Doctors have refused to work at hospitals and institutions under military rule, except in emergencies, he adds.

One demonstrator, Sawsan Bashir, told AFP news agency: "We will not leave the streets until the civilian government is back and the transition is back."

"We are ready to give our lives for the democratic transition in Sudan," fellow protester Haitham Mohamed said.

Army and paramilitary troops have been deployed across Khartoum, the city's airport is closed and international flights are suspended. The internet is also down.

At least three people have been killed and 80 have been injured, the Sudan Central Doctor's Committee wrote on its Facebook page. Those who died had been shot by soldiers, it said.

Video footage from Khartoum on Monday showed large groups in the streets, including many women. Barricades of burning tyres can be seen, with plumes of black smoke rising in various parts of the city.

"There is tension and also violence because people tried to go to the army headquarters… they were met with gunshots", human rights defender Duaa Tariq told the BBC. She added there was fear and confusion in the streets, but also solidarity between the protesters.

World leaders have reacted with alarm to the military's move.

Under arrest

Prime Minister Abdallah Hamdok and his wife are among those reported to have been detained and put under house arrest, along with members of his cabinet and other civilian leaders. Their whereabouts are unknown.

They are part of a transitional government designed to steer Sudan towards democracy after the rule of former president, Omar al-Bashir.

Mr Hamdok was reportedly being pressed to support the coup but was refusing to do so, and instead he urged people to continue with peaceful protests to "defend the revolution".

Gen Burhan had been leading the power-sharing arrangement between military and civilian leaders, known as the Sovereign Council.

In a televised address, he said infighting between politicians, ambition and incitement to violence had forced him to act to protect the safety of the nation and to "rectify the revolution's course".

He said Sudan was still committed to "international accords" and the transition to civilian rule, with elections planned for July 2023.

But a senior official from the prime minister's office, Adam Elhiraika, told the BBC the coup could lead Sudan back into a civil war, adding the risk was "extremely high".

Although Sudan remains in a deep economic crisis, it had been receiving more international support. A military takeover will put that at risk.

'A betrayal'

The UK's special envoy for Sudan and South Sudan, Robert Fairweather, tweeted that military arrests of civilian leaders were "a betrayal of the revolution, the transition and the Sudanese people".

The African Union, of which Sudan is a member, said it had learned with "deep dismay" of the situation, and called for the "strict respect of human rights".

The US, EU, UN and Arab League have also expressed deep concern.

The military and civilian transitional authorities have ruled together since 2019, when President Bashir was toppled after months of street protests.

The power-sharing deal between the military and a loose coalition of groups - the Forces for Freedom and Change - saw the launch of the Sovereign Council.

It was scheduled to rule the country for another year - with the aim of holding elections and transitioning to civilian rule.

But the deal was always fractious, with a large number of rival political groups - and divisions within the military too.

Sudan has been unable to find a workable political system since independence in 1956 and has seen numerous coups and coup attempts.

Recent weeks have seen a rapid build-up of tension in Khartoum. A hostile takeover of power is what many in Sudan and beyond have feared could happen anytime. The signs have been all too clear.

A pro-military sit-in right in front of the presidential palace in Khartoum was seen as choreographed to lead to a coup. No attempt was made to disguise its purpose. The protesters demanded that the military overthrow "failed" civilian leaders. It was an unusual attempt at legitimising a military takeover, using the guise of a popular protest.

Nearly a week later, a counter-protest was held. This time, huge crowds came out in support of the civilian government.

With more protests called by pro-democracy groups to "counter a military coup", Sudan could be set for yet another period of showdown between the armed forces and the people.

The country has made huge strides in normalising ties with the West and unlocking much-needed funding streams. The promise of transition to democracy has kept many Sudanese and the country's allies hopeful. But all that could be at risk now.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-59033142

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Patients hid under beds

Sudan doctors refuse to hand injured protesters to soldiers

At the Royal Care hospital in Khartoum, close to the military headquarters in the centre of Sudan’s capital, the beds are full of dozens of injured, all of them wounded in the protests against Monday’s coup.

There are some who were shot with live bullets during the demonstrations as large numbers took to the streets to oppose the arrest of Sudan’s prime minister, Abdalla Hamdok, and other ministers by the security forces.

Some were badly beaten. Others still were run over by cars driven into the protesters. Among them, say hospital staff, are some so badly injured they may never walk again.

Salman, a surgeon, said that in the midst of the violence, as many of the injured were being brought in, the military asked staff to hand over the wounded.

“I performed three operations yesterday,” he said. “As I was getting ready to go into the operating theatre there were soldiers – so many soldiers – from the army and from Darfur’s armed movements shooting around the hospital.

“They asked us to hand over the injured protesters. Of course we refused,” he added. “They used heavy weapons to terrorise us including Doshka [a nickname for the Russian-made DShK machine gun].”

“Patients had to hide under their beds and seats. Some of the bullets reached the gates of the hospital.”

And among the 10 reported dead in Monday’s clashes, medical staff reported, were two doctors named as Rayan Ali and Mohamed Abdulhaleem.

The injured in the hospitals, and the accounts of medical staff, confirmed the levels of violence used by uniformed military personnel and gangs of plainclothes thugs who beat people who had gathered on the streets.

“Most of the injuries were meant to be deadly. They just shot people or beat them on their heads or chests,” the doctor added. “Many came in with concussion.”

“Some of the cases that came in were just too complicated. There was nothing more that we could do for them.”

Among the injured was 17-year-old Muhanad, who was shot in the spine.

After news of the coup spread rapidly throughout the country, Muhanad had walked more than 15km from his house in the south of the city to the military headquarters in the centre along with thousands of other protesters.

“We just wanted the civilian governance to be brought back,” he explained. But when they reached the military headquarters they were met by the Rapid Support Forces, a notorious paramilitary, and other security forces and chased back.

“We were running away and kept running. But then I was shot and saw many others fall, among them an elderly man who died.”

Another protester described his torture at the hands of the security forces near the military headquarters.

Mohamed, 21, and originally from Darfur, described being beaten until he lost consciousness. “They asked me to say ‘military’ [a reference to the chants of the word ‘civilian’ by demonstrators who oppose the coup] but I didn’t say a word.

“So eight of them surrounded me and kept beating me with sticks, and one of them stood on my head before shaving off my hair.”

The abuse meted out to demonstrators on the street appears to have been reflected in the treatment of some arrested officials.

Mariam al-Mahdi, foreign minister in the government that the military dissolved, told the Associated Press she had spoken to the wife of one of the officials detained, minister of cabinet affairs, Khalid Omar, and said he was humiliated and mistreated during his arrest.

“They (military forces) took Khalid barefoot, wearing only his nightclothes,” she said.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/ ... sudan-coup

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Three scenarios for post-coup Sudan

Which way Sudan heads will be determined by the willingness of stakeholders to make compromises

On October 25, Sudan’s military carried out a coup against the civilian authorities. Army chief, General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, dissolved the government and the sovereignty council, suspended critical parts of Sudan’s Constitutional Charter of 2019, and imposed a nationwide state of emergency, thereby orchestrating the biggest political crisis in Sudan’s two-year-old transition. Prime Minister Abdalla Hamdok and some of his cabinet ministers were arrested. Al-Burhan then declared the military would establish a new government, promising elections would take place in July 2023.

On October 30, tens of thousands of Sudanese people turned out across Sudan in a well-coordinated demonstration against the coup. Live ammunition was fired at protesters and at least three people were killed and more than 100 wounded.

Since then, protests have continued in response to calls by the Sudanese Professionals Association (SPA) for civil disobedience against the military coup. This has demonstrated the resilience and passion of the Sudanese people to preserve the democratic transition and their ability to mobilise across the country.

Amid the multiple mediation efforts underway in Khartoum, three possible scenarios emerge for what happens next. Which one plays out will be determined by whether all actors involved – the military, the Forces for Freedom and Change (FFC), which emerged as the leading civilian political power after the 2019 revolution, and the protesters – are ready to bear the high cost of confrontation or are willing to make compromises.

The first scenario is to continue down the path which the military set out and normalise the coup. This would mean that the Sudanese people would have to accept a political arrangement that they suffered under for 30 years and buy into the argument that the army’s move against the civilian government was in the best interest of the country.

However, it is unlikely that the Sudanese youth, who continue to protest, neighbourhood resistance committees, which have led mobilisation since the 2019 revolution, major civil forces, such as the Sudanese Professional Association (SPA), or the FFC itself would be willing to back down from their demands for a return to civilian rule. This would effectively put them in direct confrontation with the military, as they would have to mobilise again to fight for democracy. As a result, they would have to pay a very high price, perhaps too high, as many lives may be lost in clashes with the security forces.

An escalation between the military and civilian forces could throw the country into political and economic paralysis and undo all progress made to normalise relations with the international community and international financial institutions. The US has already suspended $700m in economic assistance after the coup and billions of dollars in debt relief could be on the line. Top military officials could also face targeted sanctions by the US and other Western countries.

The second scenario is simply to reverse the coup and return to the status quo before October 25. This would mean bringing back into effect the Constitutional Charter of 2019, which was agreed upon between the army and the FFC, and restoring both the sovereignty council and the government. Both the protesters and the military would oppose such a development.

For the Sudanese people who took to the streets, going back to the political arrangements before the coup would mean that the political tensions which led to it in the first place would not be addressed. This includes the transfer of the chairmanship of the sovereignty council to civilians and the removal of any executive powers for the military. The mass protests of the past two weeks have demonstrated that the Sudanese people want civilian governance.

For the military, going back to the pre-coup arrangements would mean admitting that what happened was a coup and that its leadership cannot be trusted. This could expose al-Burhan and the generals who supported him to legal prosecution and could threaten their powers.

A third scenario would see all stakeholders involved agree on a peaceful political settlement. This would require concessions from all parties and would entail restoring the Constitutional Charter of 2019, with the necessary adjustments to the power-sharing arrangement to ensure that the political tensions are mitigated. The sovereignty council and the civilian government would have to be restored as well.

While a political settlement could take different forms, reflecting the mediation efforts, in my view a number of steps would have to be taken to ensure its durability.

First, the settlement should provide for the civilian takeover of the country’s governance. A new government under Prime Minister Hamdok’s leadership should be formed without any interference from the military or other parties. The sovereignty council should be reconstituted and downsized. Current civilian and military members, including al-Burhan and General Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo, a.k.a. “Hemedti”, the commander of the notorious paramilitary Rapid Support Forces, should resign to make way for a new all-civilian membership, that would inspire confidence in the general public.

The loss of control over executive power would, of course, worry the army’s leadership, so it would have to be given political guarantees. For al-Burhan and Hemedti, in particular, to exit Sudanese politics, they would have to be granted immunity from prosecution for criminal offences committed in the past. This may be the only way to put an end to the military’s meddling in the political transition.

Apart from the military and the civilian political powers, represented by the FFC, the demands of two other important stakeholders will have to be taken into account: the various armed factions, which signed the Juba Peace Agreements with the transitional government in 2020, and the protesters and mobilised civil groups.

Some of these armed factions, who felt alienated by the direction which the political transition was taking in Sudan, joined the military in the build-up to the coup, participating in pro-military protests that were calling for the dissolution of the government. Any viable settlement would have to respect the power-sharing provisions of the Juba Peace Agreements and seek to convince these groups that their interest lies in the establishment of civilian rule, not military rule.

The demands of the Sudanese people who took to the streets and the civil groups that supported them also have to be taken into account. The SPA and resistance committees have been calling for nothing less than absolute civilian control of the transition going forward and do not see any political role for the military, especially after the coup. If their concerns are not addressed, there is a risk that the settlement would not be well received by the general population and these groups would mobilise against it.

This scenario may be challenging to implement, but it appears, in my view, to be the most reasonable one, which could spare the country from political and economic disaster.

Historically, one of the main challenges for the Sudanese people has not been overcoming dictatorships or repressive regimes, but rather consolidating democracy once regime change has been attained. Establishing democratic traditions and institutions to protect the achievements of political freedom and plurality has been elusive. The current crisis offers an opportunity to correct the historical record and establish a durable democratic regime in Sudan.

https://www.aljazeera.com/opinions/2021 ... coup-sudan