Coronavirus: we separate myths from facts and give advice

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Cases in the Kurdistan are declining

The number of coronavirus cases in Kurdistan is slowly declining, said the health ministry spokesperson on Thursday, urging people to get vaccinated

Aso Hawezy dismissed claims that the Region is entering the high-risk red level as “rumors” in a Facebook post, noting that the number of infected has declined recently.

Hawezy urged the public to comply with health regulations and get vaccinated, saying otherwise “the severe cases will not lessen and the death rate will remain high.”

The Kurdistan Region is seeing a third wave of the coronavirus, recording over a thousand cases daily in the past weeks as the new Delta variant spreads. Health officials have previously warned of the severity of the current spike.

The recent surge in infections has contributed to an increased demand for vaccines, especially Pfizer, which was initially only administered in central hospitals, but has since become more widely available.

The Kurdistan Regional Government’s (KRG) health ministry decided last week to open more coronavirus vaccination centers and increase working hours to accelerate the process.

The ministry’s vaccine rollout program has a registration platform open to the general public, but it prioritizes the elderly, people with chronic diseases, and health workers. They have also dedicated two days for specific sectors: public servants can get vaccinated on Saturdays and teachers on Tuesdays, as the new academic year approaches.

There are at least 135 vaccination centers in the Kurdistan Region.

The Kurdistan Region recorded 1,823 new cases of the virus, 2,235 recoveries, and 25 deaths on Thursday, bringing the total number of cases up to 275,134 and total deaths to 5,144.

https://www.rudaw.net/english/kurdistan/190820212

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Double-jabbed able to spread virus

ITV News Science Editor Tom Clarke reports on the latest major study about Covid vaccinations

A major study has found that while our Covid-19 vaccines continue to be brilliant at keeping people out of hospital and dying from the disease, we won't be able to rely on them to bring the pandemic under control.

The analysis looked into the effectiveness of the Pfizer and AstraZeneca vaccines against the Delta variant, compared to the previous Alpha (Kent) one.

We already knew neither vaccine was perfect at preventing someone getting infected with Covid. But the study conclusively shows that even if you're double-jabbed and you're unlucky enough to catch Covid, you might be just as infectious as you would have been if you'd never been vaccinated at all.

Vaccines are really good at preventing the vast majority of people from going to hospital. They also massively reduce the number of people who get infected and go on to infect others.

But what we now know is that they're not good enough to prevent the virus from spreading - especially right now when infection rates in the UK remain high. In short, the idea current vaccines will give us "herd immunity" from Covid is a myth.

"The fact that you can get [Covid], with high levels of virus in the nose and throat suggests that herd immunity may actually not be possible with this virus and the unvaccinated people may continue to still be at risk of hospitalisation and death, simply because there will always be virus floating around," said Professor Sarah Walker, who led the study at the University of Oxford.

You might ask, if vaccines are preventing most of us from getting sick and dying, why should that be a problem?

Well it's seriously bad news for anyone with a compromised immune system or otherwise vulnerable to severe Covid. They can't rely on others - like hospital and care home staff - being vaccinated to protect them.

It also means that the virus is still able (though at a much reduced rate) to spread through the population and evolve.

The longer it does that in the presence of vaccinated people, the quicker we're likely to see another variant emerge that's even better at dodging vaccines.

And there was another, potentially concerning, finding from the latest analysis. It confirmed that the effectiveness of the vaccines at preventing infection decreases over time, particularly for the Pfizer vaccine.

Two weeks after a second dose of Pfizer, protection against infection is 85%, but after three months it's declined to 75%. That's a 22% reduction in effectiveness per month. For the AstraZeneca vaccine it was a much more modest 7% decline

It's nothing to be alarmed about yet. Firstly, because Pfizer is better than the AZ vaccine at preventing infection in the first place (85% v 68%), so the decrease is from a higher starting point. But if that level of decline continues at that rate, it suggests the Pfizer vaccine may have lower effectiveness in the long run.

"We see that AstraZeneca and Pfizer vaccines are behaving very differently in how that protection changes over time from second doses.

"There is no immediate cause for concern, both vaccines are doing really well, but they aren't the same," says Prof Walker.

The data strongly hints at the need for the government's booster vaccination programme sooner rather than later.

https://www.itv.com/news/2021-08-19/dou ... vaccinated

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Purpose-made drug is approved in UK

The drug which was given to Donald Trump to prevent and fight Covid-19 has been approved for use in the UK

The UK’s medicines regulator has approved the use of the drug previously known as REGN-Cov2.

Health Secretary Sajid Javid said approval of the first treatment designed specifically for Covid-19 in the UK is “fantastic news” and he hopes it can be rolled out for patients on the NHS “as soon as possible”.

The Medicines and Healthcare products Regulatory Agency (MHRA) said the clinical trial data it assessed showed that Ronapreve can be used to prevent infection, treat symptoms of serious infection and cut the likelihood of being admitted to hospital.

Trials took place before widespread vaccination and before the emergence of virus variants.

It is the first monoclonal antibody combination product approved for use in the prevention and treatment of acute infection from the virus in the UK.

Monoclonal antibodies are man-made proteins that act like natural human antibodies in the immune system.

The drug, developed by pharmaceutical firms Regeneron and Roche, is given either by injection or infusion and acts at the lining of the respiratory system where it binds tightly to the virus and prevents it from gaining access to the cells, the MHRA said.

Mr Javid said: “The UK is considered a world leader in identifying and rolling out life-saving treatments for Covid-19, once they have been proven safe and effective in our government-backed clinical trials.

“This is fantastic news from the independent medicines regulator and means the UK has approved its first therapeutic designed specifically for Covid-19.

“This treatment will be a significant addition to our armoury to tackle Covid-19 – in addition to our world-renowned vaccination programme and life-saving therapeutics dexamethasone and tocilizumab.

“We are now working at pace with the NHS and expert clinicians to ensure this treatment can be rolled out to NHS patients as soon as possible.”

MHRA interim chief quality and access officer Dr Samantha Atkinson said: “We are pleased to announce the approval of another therapeutic treatment that can be used to help save lives and protect against Covid-19.

“Ronapreve is the first of its kind for the treatment of Covid-19 and, after a meticulous assessment of the data by our expert scientists and clinicians, we are satisfied that this treatment is safe and effective.

“With no compromises on quality, safety and efficacy, the public can trust that the MHRA have conducted a robust and thorough assessment of all the available data.”

The Department of Health said it will set out further details of how the treatment will be deployed to patients “in due course”.

Professor Martin Landray, professor of medicine and epidemiology at the Nuffield Department of Population Health, University of Oxford, said the approval is “an important step forward” and that it could play “an important role” in helping patients at higher risk from the virus, noting that it had been administered to Mr Trump last year.

He said: “The challenge going forward will be in determining which patients should be prioritised for this treatment. Covid is not a rare disease and many people get better of their own accord after a few days of a nasty flu-like illness.

“It would be hard to justify giving what are likely to be limited supplies of a relatively expensive treatment to huge numbers of people who are likely to get better on their own.

“On the other hand, it may play an important role in patients who are at higher risk of developing severe infection and who are more likely to end up in hospital.”

Professor Penny Ward, independent pharmaceutical physician and visiting professor in pharmaceutical medicine at Kings College, London, said it is a “good news day” and suggested how the drug might be deployed.

“I think it is most likely to be used to prevent hospitalisation among people becoming sick with Covid who are at higher risk of needing hospital care/dying from disease,” she said.

She added that it might also be used to prevent Covid infections in people who are in contact with a confirmed case and who might have reduced response to vaccination, such as those being treated for cancer or who have had a transplant.

She suggested it could also be used to “curtail outbreaks” in places like care homes, hospitals, prisons and critical workplaces.

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Antibody tests offered to public

Antibody tests are to be widely offered to the UK public for the first time in a new programme that aims to find out more about how much natural protection people have after getting coronavirus

The government scheme will offer tests to thousands of adults each day.

Anyone over 18 will be able to opt in when having a PCR test from Tuesday - of those who test positive, up to 8,000 will be sent two home antibody tests.

Health Secretary Sajid Javid said it would be quick and easy to take part.

The first of the finger-prick tests would have to be done as soon as possible after the positive result, so the body would not have time to generate a detectable antibody response to the infection.

The second would be taken 28 days later and measure antibodies generated in response to the infection.

The UK Health Security Agency is to run the programme and will work alongside NHS test and trace services in England, Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland to use results to monitor levels of antibodies in positive cases.

Its chief executive Dr Jenny Harries said the scheme would help the UK gain "vital insight" into the impact of the vaccination programme and immune responses to different variants.

Mr Javid said it would build on the "massive wall of defence" that was the vaccination programme and getting involved would help "strengthen our understanding of Covid-19 as we cautiously return to a more normal life".

The Department of Health said as well as helping it improve understanding about antibody protection, the scheme could give information about any groups of people who did not develop an immune response after getting coronavirus.

Scotland's Health Secretary Humza Yousaf welcomed news of the study, saying: "It is vital that we have the fullest understanding possible of vaccine effectiveness and the immune response of the broader population.

"The rollout of this antibody testing study will help us achieve this and could play an important role in the battle to keep the virus under control."

Antibody tests have been used previously in the UK during the pandemic but in limited numbers, largely on people involved in studies or surveys.

On Saturday, the UK reported 32,058 new cases and 104 deaths, of people who had tested positive within the previous 28 days.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-58293249

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Will COVID-19 variants keep getting worse?

The Delta variant has dramatically changed the course of the pandemic. What will the next variant bring?

The highly contagious Delta variant is now responsible for the vast majority of COVID-19 cases in the United States. How might the virus next evolve?

What is a variant?

Viruses are constantly mutating. Most mutations are relatively harmless and do not affect a virus' properties, but some mutations can make a disease more infectious or severe. When it comes to COVID-19, the World Health Organization and U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention are tracking variants of interest (VOIs) and variants of concern (VOCs). A VOI is suspected of being more contagious, capable of causing more severe disease, and/or reducing vaccine effectiveness than an original strain; a VOI becomes a VOC when there is evidence to support these suspicions. There are four known VOCs: Alpha, which was first identified in the United Kingdom; Beta, first identified in South Africa; Delta, first identified in India; and Gamma, first identified in Japan and Brazil.

Why am I hearing so much about the Delta variant?

Because of its alarmingly rapid spread. The Delta variant, which emerged from India's devastating second COVID wave in the spring, became the dominant strain worldwide in a few short months thanks to its high transmissibility. Data shows it is at least twice as contagious as previous variants.

People who contracted the original strain tended to spread the virus to three others, on average; models suggest that figure jumps to seven for Delta. Dr. Anthony Fauci, the country's top infectious disease expert, said data shows people who become infected by the Delta variant have viral loads "about 1,000 times higher in quantity" than people who were infected with the Alpha variant.

Studies out of Canada and Scotland suggest unvaccinated people infected with the Delta variant are also more likely to be hospitalized than patients with the original virus strain or the Alpha variant. The good news is that so far, the vaccines available in the U.S. remain very effective at preventing severe illness and death, even against the Delta variant. But in areas with low vaccination rates, cases are on the rise and hospitals are filling up.

What is "Delta Plus"?

The Delta Plus variant is related to Delta and has an additional mutation in its spike protein. Dr. Peter Chin-Hong, an infectious disease specialist at the University of California San Francisco, says public health experts believe Delta Plus is "at least as bad as Delta," but they don't have the clinical and biological information necessary to know if it is more transmissible, makes people sicker, or is able to evade vaccines. Right now, it only represents a small fraction of U.S. infections.

Will a variant worse than Delta emerge?

"That's what keeps me up at night," Shweta Bansal, an infectious-disease ecologist at Georgetown University, told The Atlantic. The longer the virus is allowed to spread in unvaccinated populations, the greater the chance of it mutating when jumping from host to host. The big concern is that a new variant will be able to evade the vaccines, and everyone — regardless of their vaccination status — will be vulnerable to the virus once again.

We've already seen the virus change several times in the less than two years since COVID-19 emerged. But while scientists are surprised by COVID-19's rapid mutations, there are evolutionary pressures on how viruses change. When an organism evolves to become more fit in one way, it often sheds a different trait at the same time. For example, a virus might mutate to become more contagious, but at the expense of its own severity. Such evolutionary trade-offs help keep many viruses in check. "There isn't a super-ultimate virus that has every bad combination of mutations," Dr. Aris Katzourakis, who studies viral evolution at the University of Oxford, told BBC.

Do vaccines prevent new variants?

Not necessarily. The COVID-19 vaccination program will "squeeze [the virus] in another evolutionary direction," BBC writes. But history suggests the vaccines will give us an advantage: "Many viruses — measles, mumps, rubella, polio, smallpox — have never meaningfully circumvented their vaccine," writes Dhruv Khullar at The New Yorker.

The WHO expects that, as more people are vaccinated, circulation of the virus will decrease and mutation will slow. But right now, with just 16 percent of the world fully vaccinated, the virus still has plenty of opportunity to change and evolve. While the global vaccination program continues at a snail's pace, public health experts are encouraging other mitigation strategies be used slow the spread of the virus and thus reduce the risk of new variants appearing.

Social distancing, masking, and good ventilation all help slow the spread of COVID-19. In a worst-case scenario, the vaccines can be tweaked relatively quickly to target new variants, though early detection is key.

So how are we detecting new variants?

In the United States, there are private and academic labs, hospitals, and state health departments that are sequencing virus genomes to look for new — and potentially serious — variants. However, there isn't much of a coordinated effort, and the CDC doesn't have a public tracker showing virus mutations. The Rockefeller Foundation found that as of early June, only 14 countries were sequencing 5 percent or more of COVID-19 cases.

"If new variants emerge in a country where there isn't much genome sequencing, it could be a real problem," Brendan Larsen, a PhD student at the University of Arizona who identified a new variant earlier this year, told BBC. That's why people in every corner of the globe must continue to get tested regularly, Ed Yong writes in The Atlantic. Sequencing will be important throughout the entire pandemic, even when transmission finally slows down, because at that point, the virus' movements will become "harder to predict," Yong said.

https://theweek.com/feature/briefing/10 ... obal-en-GB

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One vaccine for many variants

Two separate research teams have reported results of antibodies from SARS survivors which could help towards developing a vaccine that protects against a broad range of Covid variants

One study, published on Wednesday in The New England Journal of Medicine, identified "high-level, broad-spectrum" antibodies in blood samples from survivors of the original SARS outbreak in 2003 who recently received the Pfizer vaccine for Covid.

In test tube experiments, the antibodies of the survivors could neutralise all of the current Covid variants of concern and five viruses that have been identified in bats and pangolins.

The findings from these studies could be a step toward developing new antibodies that would be effective against multiple different coronaviruses, the teams say.

More than 1,000 people who attended Latitude Festival last month have tested positive for coronavirus, according to reports.

The festival, which ran from July 22 to 25, was part of the Government’s Events Research Programme attended by about 40,000 people.

Revellers had to show proof of a negative Covid-19 test or be double vaccinated to access the site at Henham Park in Suffolk.

However, data released by Suffolk County Council reportedly shows 1,051 people tested positive for the virus in the days after the event.

The research suggests that 619 people got infected at Latitude, while 432 would have been infectious at the time of the event.

Stuart Keeble, director of Suffolk Public Health, said: “Latitude Festival was part of an event research pilot by central government, which set the parameters and Covid guidance for the event.

“We were one of many partners who helped implement Covid security in line with Government advice.”

Covid inquiries should start before end of the year, campaigners say

The UK Government must “show some leadership” and ensure that statutory coronavirus inquiries start before the year is out, campaigners have said.

The Covid-19 Bereaved Families For Justice group is calling on Wales and Northern Ireland to follow Scotland’s example, after First Minister Nicola Sturgeon said an independent inquiry would begin by the end of 2021.

A UK-wide inquiry will start next spring, Boris Johnson has said. But campaigners said it should commence before the end of this year.

Lobby Akinnola, whose 60-year-old father Olufemi died with coronavirus in April 2020, said: “Today’s announcement will rightly leave bereaved families across the rest of the United Kingdom wondering why this has been announced for Scotland but not in the other devolved regions.

“It’s not just the Prime Minister kicking the UK-wide inquiry continually into the long grass, but the Welsh Assembly and Northern Irish Executive who are yet to even commit to holding a statutory inquiry into their own handling of the pandemic.

“This simply isn’t good enough and it’s time for the UK government, the Welsh Assembly and the Northern Irish Executive to show some leadership and rise to the occasion and ensure statutory inquiries commence before the end of the year within the devolved administrations and for the UK.”

New nurses and midwives feel “unprepared and unsupported in first roles”, a union has said.

Unison said that more must be done to support newly qualified workers and students as they start their career.

It comes after a poll found that 70 per cent believe they have missed out on important learning experiences during the coronavirus crisis.

Many newly qualified midwives and nurses and students worked on the front line of the pandemic.

However, more than half of final year students said they are worried they are not as prepared for qualification as they should be, according to a survey of 182 student and newly qualified nurses and midwives.

Unison’s national officer for nursing, Stuart Tuckwood, said: “Unprecedented demands have been placed on student nurses and midwives during Covid.

“Constructive and meaningful support in the workplace is vital for those newly qualified so they can fulfil their potential.

“Some may lack confidence because they’ve missed out on some training opportunities.”
12 hours ago

Ryanair blamed the UK Government for not reducing air passenger duty and a lack of Covid recovery incentives as it confirmed it is pulling out of Northern Ireland.

Routes from Belfast International Airport to a number of European destinations will stop on October 30.

The budget airline stopped flying from the City of Derry Airport earlier this year and will also end a number of seasonal flights from Belfast City Airport.

In a statement, Ryanair confirmed it will cease operations from the Belfast International and Belfast City airports in the autumn.

A spokesman for the airline said: “Due to the UK Government’s refusal to suspend or reduce APD (air passenger duty), and the lack of Covid recovery incentives from both Belfast airports, this winter Ryanair will cease operations from Belfast International and Belfast City Airport from the end of the summer schedule in October and these aircraft will be reallocated to lower-cost airports elsewhere in the UK and Europe for the winter schedule, which starts in November.”

A spokesman for Belfast International Airport expressed disappointment,

“It has been a difficult period for aviation and a time when consumers need some stability and faith in the Northern Ireland air transport network,” they said.

The UK has recorded 174 Covid-related deaths and 31,914 new infections, according to daily Government figures.

Some 131,283 people received their second dose of the vaccine on Monday, meaning just over 77 per cent of the population are now fully vaccinated.

This time last week, on August 17, some 26,852 people had tested positive for Covid and 170 people had the virus listed on their death certificate.

Opposition parties have called on the Welsh Government to follow Scotland’s lead and hold an independent inquiry into the handling of the pandemic.

First Minister Nicola Sturgeon said the judge-led inquiry in Scotland will be established by the end of the year.

The Conservatives and Plaid Cymru accused the Labour-run Welsh Government of seeking to avoid scrutiny by not holding a separate inquiry in Wales.

Welsh Conservative Senedd leader Andrew RT Davies said: “The Scottish First Minister - like the Prime Minister - has done the right thing by announcing a public inquiry into the handling of the pandemic by her government.

“Regrettably, in Wales, Labour and the First Minister Mark Drakeford have sought to block such scrutiny, transparency and accountability and it’s an unacceptable situation which cannot continue.

“Decisions made in Wales - both good and bad - had a direct impact on lives and that cannot be dismissed by a Labour administration that was keen to stress at every opportunity that they have done things differently.”

In order for the US to reach herd immunity against COVID-19, those who are unvaccinated will need to get inoculated, said Dr Anthony Fauci, the nation’s top infectious disease expert.

“We can get herd immunity really easily if we get everybody vaccinated,” Fauci said during an interview on MSNBC Tuesday.

When asked by MSNBC’s Mehdi Hasan whether the nation can reach herd immunity without the help of those who are resistant to getting the vaccine, Fauci replied, “I don’t think so.”

“The only way you can get through herd immunity without them is if the unfortunate situation, if they all wind up getting infected,” said Fauci, the director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases.

Half a million Covid vaccines arrived in the Israeli-occupied West Bank and Gaza on Tuesday.

The US donated the vaccines as Palestinian officials work to boost uptake and counter a surge in new cases by requiring some workers to get the jab.

Palestinians began administering vaccines in February, but despite having purchased or received what officials have called “an abundance of doses”, uptake has stalled at just 35% of those eligible in the West Bank and around 11% in Gaza.

Prime Minister Mohammad Shtayyeh, whose Palestinian Authority has limited self-rule in the West Bank, said that unvaccinated public-sector employees would be put on unpaid leave, with immediate effect.

Switzerland is being hit by a fourth wave of the coronavirus with a very worrying rise in infections, according to the head of the government’s crisis team.

The number of new infections has hovered between 2,500 and 3,000 per day recently, close to the level of the third wave earlier this year, Patrick Mathys said

“The current situation should be seen as unfavourable and to some extent very worrying. We have to describe the current situation as the fourth wave,” he added.

New cases rose by 2,993 on Tuesday, taking the total number to 761,978 since the pandemic began. The government also reported six more deaths, taking the death toll to 10,461.

Mr Mathys said he was concerned about hospitals and the low level of vaccinations.

Ireland’s economy will be fully open by Christmas, the country’s health minister has said.

Stephen Donnelly said the current plan is to continue with the next phase of reopening and the easing of Covid-19 restrictions.

Earlier, HSE chief executive Paul Reid said that 86% of Irish adults are fully vaccinated, while 88,000 jabs have been given to 12 to 15-year-olds.

The National Public Health Emergency Team is meeting on Wednesday to consider the next steps in the response to the pandemic, with the Cabinet’s Covid-19 sub-committee set to meet on Friday.

https://www.standard.co.uk/news/uk/covi ... 52017.html

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Air pollution linked to severe cases

People living in areas of high air pollution before the pandemic may have an increased risk of catching Covid-19 and being admitted to hospital, according to a report commissioned by the Mayor of London

Researchers from Imperial College London have published a “comprehensive overview” of the most credible evidence for the links between air pollution and Covid-19, since November 2020, and other lung infections, since 2011.

It comes ahead of the planned expansion of London’s Ultra Low Emission Zone next month.

It found that long-term exposure to air pollution before the pandemic increased the risk of hospitalisation in people already infected with Covid according to a small number of good-quality studies.

Inconsistent results were found for studies of long-term exposure to air pollution and the number of Covid cases.

There is also evidence that long-term exposure to air pollution increases susceptibility to worse outcomes from Covid, the scientists said. “This may be due to the already well-established link between air pollution and lung and heart disease, which are known to make people more vulnerable to adverse outcomes from Covid-19.”

They said: “There is evidence that exposure to air pollution might increase the likelihood of contracting Covid-19 if you are exposed to the coronavirus. This comes from a few studies that found, once inhaled into the lungs of animals, pollutants increase amounts of the protein that allows the coronavirus to attach to the lung cells.”

However, the scientists said that as the pandemic is less than two years old further research will be necessary “to strengthen these emerging findings”. They also said evidence for a link between short term exposure to pollution and Covid-19 is “unclear at this stage” and difficult to evaluate on the available evidence..

The researchers concluded: “This review shows that there is some increasing evidence of links between exposure to air pollution and susceptibility to hospital admissions from Covid-19 and, whilst this study highlights that more research is needed in this area, it is already clear that tackling air pollution is important in reducing the vulnerability of the population to Covid-19, and other infections like it.”

Mayor of London Sadiq Khan tells i in an interview today that the report bolsters the case for the significant expansion of the so-called ULEZ (ultra low emission zone) charge on older more polluting vehicles in the capital that will see around 100,000 more cars liable for a £12.50 daily charge with lorries hit for a £100 levy on October 25.

Challenged that although the Imperial study is clear that poor air quality worsens the consequences of those with Covid it is less emphatic on the link with initial infection than he suggests, Mr Khan said: “I think we can agree that long-term exposure to air pollution ain’t a good thing. Bear in mind that Covid is going to be around for some time going forward I think there’s an argument to bring in ULEZ.”

Kevin McConway, emeritus professor of applied statistics at The Open University, said the link between air pollution and catching Covid had yet to be proven

He said: “If you’ve lived a reasonable long time where the air pollution is quite bad then that might increase your risk of getting Covid at all, and if you do get it, it might make things worse for you in some respects – there are gaps in that story but it does fit in with other stories. We haven’t shown it for sure by any means, but the researchers have provided a lot of indicators it could be and therefore worth investigating further.”

https://inews.co.uk/news/air-pollution- ... dy-1184218

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UK: No plans for October lockdown

The government has denied planning an October lockdown in England

The i newspaper said plans had been drawn up to extend the school half-term holiday, if the number of hospitalisations continue at the current level. The i said a full lockdown was unlikely - but the government could introduce some rules as part of a "firebreak".

"It is not true that the government is planning a lockdown or firebreak around the October half term," it said in a tweet.

The prime minister's spokesman also denied the report. He said plans had been kept for a range of scenarios - "but these kind of measures would only be reintroduced as a last resort to prevent unsustainable pressure on our NHS".

"I think we've been clear throughout that we will take action, and indeed we have done when necessary to protect our NHS," he said.

But the spokesman pointed out that when rules were brought in the past, the UK did not yet have the protection from vaccines.

On Tuesday the UK recorded another 37,489 coronavirus cases, with 209 deaths within 28 days of a positive test.

Will the NHS get overwhelmed?

Analysis box by Nick Triggle

If the NHS was at risk of collapse the return of restrictions is possible. Contingency plans are, of course, in place.

But the key question is - what is the likelihood of this? Very few of those scientists advising government think it's a likely scenario.

And - as one scientist put it to me - "if we were going to suggest anything it wouldn't be closing schools".

That's not to say there isn't real concern about winter.

Covid, plus the return of normal winter viruses made worse by lack of immunity from social distancing and lockdown last year, means the coming months are likely to be very difficult for the NHS.

Care could be rationed and performance deteriorate as happens quite often in winter.

But it is important to remember currently fewer than 7% of beds are occupied by Covid patients - and the numbers are not rising rapidly.

Earlier, the government's vaccines minister Nadhim Zahawi said he hoped booster jabs would avoid the need for any new lockdown rules.

"Look, vaccines have given us the ability to reduce infections, to save 100,000 lives," he told BBC Breakfast.

"I'm not going to be arrogant and say to you this is a done deal, it's all over, it's fine, this virus is no longer in pandemic stage.

"But I hope through the booster programme we can transition the virus from pandemic to endemic status and deal with it year in, year out... but not have to close down our economy or take the severe measures we had to sadly take in December of last year."

The first booster vaccines for the most vulnerable are expected this month.

The latest advice from the Joint Committee on Vaccination and Immunisation - which advises the government on vaccines - suggests more than 30 million people should receive a booster dose of Covid vaccine.

That number includes all over-50s and anyone over 16 who qualifies for a flu jab.

Separately to the booster jabs, about 400,000 to 500,000 people in the UK who are severely immuno-suppressed will also be eligible for a third dose of vaccine. This is different to a booster jab, and they may also get a booster at a later date.

Mr Zahawi also emphasised that the flu vaccine was important.

"I worry about flu," he said. "We've got a big flu programme that has begun and will continue throughout the winter months as well as, I hope, our Covid booster programme which will begin shortly this month."

The number of people in hospital with coronavirus has been slowly climbing in recent weeks - although it is still far below the peak in January this year.

So far, nearly 80% of adults in the UK are fully vaccinated, while almost 89% have had a first dose.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-58474536

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England vaccine passport plans ditched

Plans to introduce vaccine passports for access into nightclubs and large events in England will not go ahead, the health secretary has said. Sajid Javid told the BBC: "We shouldn't be doing things for the sake of it."

It was thought the plan, which came under criticism from venues and some MPs, would be introduced at the end of this month. No 10 stressed it would be kept "in reserve" should it be needed over autumn or winter.

Under the scheme, people would have been required to show proof - whether of double vaccination, a negative Covid test or finishing self-isolating after a positive PCR test - in order to gain entry to clubs and other crowded events.

The Night Time Industries Association warned the plans could have crippled the industry and seen nightclubs facing discrimination cases.

The industry body has since welcomed the move, saying it hoped businesses could now plan with some certainty and start to rebuild the sector and regain customers' confidence.

The Music Venue Trust, which aims to protect grassroots venues, also welcomed the announcement, describing vaccine passports as "problematic".

There was opposition too from Tory MPs on the Covid Recovery Group and the Liberal Democrats, whose leader Ed Davey called them "divisive, unworkable and expensive".

Speaking on The Andrew Marr Show, Mr Javid said: "We just shouldn't be doing things for the sake of it or because others are doing, and we should look at every possible intervention properly.

"I've never liked the idea of saying to people you must show your papers or something to do what is just an everyday activity, but we were right to properly look at it.

"We've looked at it properly and, whilst we should keep it in reserve as a potential option, I'm pleased to say that we will not be going ahead with plans for vaccine passports."

Asked if the government was "running scared" on the policy after criticism from its own backbenchers, Mr Javid rejected this, saying vaccine passports were not needed because of other things in the "wall of defence" including high vaccine uptake, testing, surveillance and new treatments.

In the interview, Mr Javid also said:

he wanted to "get rid" of PCR tests for travel and has asked for advice on the issue

he was "not anticipating" any more lockdowns, although it would be "irresponsible to take everything off the table"

if the UK's chief medical officers advised 12 to 15-year-olds should be vaccinated, "we can start within a week" and schools were already preparing for it.

The UK's advisory body - the Joint Committee on Vaccination and Immunisation (JCVI) - has recommended against doing so except for children with particular health problems - but the final say is with the CMOs.

The move to scrap vaccine passports appears to be a sharp U-turn by the government.

On the same TV programme last week, Vaccines Minister Nadhim Zahawi said the end of September was the right time to start the vaccine passport scheme for sites with large crowds because all over-18s would have been offered two jabs by then and it was the "best way" to keep the night industry open.

The UK government had faced pressure from a number of its own Tory MPs, as well as from nightclubs and the events sector, to ditch plans for vaccine passports in England.

First, there was a hint they were pushing ahead. Last week, Vaccines Minister Nadhim Zahawi said they would be required in nightclubs and other indoor venues in England by the end of the month.

Then came the row-back. On Friday, Culture Secretary Oliver Dowden said they would "almost certainly" be necessary for nightclubs this autumn, but said he'd prefer a more limited use of them.

By Sunday at 08:30 BST, the health secretary said on Sky News that the government hoped to avoid having them, and within the next hour told the BBC they will not be going ahead with plans.

Clearly there has been debate within government itself about their use but a decision has, for now, been made - even if the option will be kept in "reserve".

Labour's deputy leader Angela Rayner said the government's approach to Covid passports had been "shambolic from the start" and lacked any clarity from ministers about the purpose of the passports and how they would work.

Liberal Democrat home affairs spokesperson Alistair Carmichael accused the Conservatives of needlessly sowing confusion among businesses for months and called for them to scrap the "unnecessary and draconian Coronavirus Act altogether".

Some large venues such as football stadiums, live music venues and music festivals have already been asking people to prove their vaccination status to gain entry.

An Office for National Statistics survey, covering 25 August to 5 September, found about 1 in 10 adults across Great Britain reported that they had been asked to show proof of vaccination or a recent negative test to be allowed into a venue or event.

On Saturday, Manchester United introduced Covid spot-checks on match days at Old Trafford, with the club saying it expected proof of full vaccination to become mandatory in the Premier League from 1 October.

The Premier League said at the start of the 2021-22 season that fans would face random spot-checks of their Covid-19 status at grounds over the first few match days. Brighton, Chelsea and Tottenham have introduced mandatory checks for fans at their stadiums.

Scotland is taking a different approach to England - they will bring in a vaccine passport for over-18s for entry to nightclubs and many large events from October.

In Wales, ministers will decide next week whether to introduce the scheme. There are no current plans for a similar scheme in Northern Ireland.

A series of key government announcements and decisions are expected in the coming days.

On Monday, Boris Johnson is expected to outline plans for booster jabs. Mr Javid said that if the JCVI advised having a broad booster programme, he was "confident" it could start this month "as planned all along".

And on Tuesday, the prime minister will set out his Covid Winter Plan for England, likely to include contingency measures that would be implemented if the NHS was at risk of becoming overwhelmed.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-58535258

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Syrian hospitals Covid spike

Covid-19 cases have soared to critical levels across Syria in recent weeks, with health facilities reaching maximum capacity and unable to cope

In some of the areas most affected by the country's decade of conflict, health infrastructure is insufficient while basic medical supplies and vaccine doses are in short supply.

While the number of cases is spiking across the country, the areas that seem worst hit by the pandemic's latest wave are those in the north that still escape government control.

In the Idlib region, where around half of the more than three million residents were displaced by conflict, the number of recorded daily infections has increased sharply and now often tops 1,000 a day.

"From August to September the confirmed number of coronavirus cases in northwest Syria jumped by 144 percent to 71,715 as of 28 September with 1,151 deaths," Save the Children said.

The charity said only a dozen beds in intensive care units remained for the entire region and called for emergency international assistance to avert an even bigger disaster.

"One death from coronavirus is one too many, but to hear that a baby and a 17-year-old have also been claimed is devastating," said Sonia Khush, the NGO's Syria response director.

"The world must not look away," she said.

- 'Uncontrolled' -

Francisco Otero Y Villar, Syria head of mission for the medical charity Medecins Sans Frontieres (Doctors Without Borders - MSF), described the situation in the northwest as an "uncontrolled outbreak".

"Hospitals are saturated, patients are waiting in lines to get a bed in intensive care units," he told AFP.

He explained that the region's limited oxygen production was another impediment and that low vaccination rates could allow the virus to spread more.

Otero Y Villar said the percentage of people in the entire northwestern Syria region who been vaccinated stood at a lowly 2.6.

The Syrian health ministry said last week that hospitals in Damascus and in the main coastal city of Latakia had reached full capacity.

The ministry said that the rise in numbers was at least in part due to increased testing.

But low testing and a lack of transparency by the authorities across Syria mean that deaths and infections have most likely been grossly under-reported since the start of the pandemic.

Covid-19 cases are also increasing in the country's northeast, which is mostly controlled by an autonomous Kurdish administration, and in government areas.

Jawan Mustafa, who heads the Kurdish administration's health department, said only 55,000 vaccine doses had been received by the region.

"The situation will get out of control if the administration does not receive sufficient support. It cannot face this pandemic alone and it is spreading fast," he said.

https://www.rudaw.net/english/middleeast/syria/01102021

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New drug cocktail to prevent COVID

AstraZeneca (AZN.L) has requested emergency approval from U.S. regulators for its antibody cocktail, the first protective shot other than vaccines against COVID-19, another potential major step in the global fight to combat the virus

While vaccines rely on an intact immune system to develop targeted antibodies and infection-fighting cells, Astra's biotech compound known as AZD7442 contains lab-made antibodies designed to linger in the body for months to contain the virus in case of an infection.

COVID-19 therapies based on the same class of monoclonal antibodies are sold by rivals Regeneron (REGN.O), Eli Lilly (LLY.N) and GlaxoSmithKline (GSK.L) and its partner Vir (VIR.O) to stop the disease from worsening during early, milder stages of the infection.

The AstraZeneca therapy, designed to last several months to a year, could protect people who do not have a strong enough immune response to COVID-19 vaccines due to, for instance, chemotherapy or anti-rejection drugs after organ transplants.

The drug, given in two sequential injections, could also supplement a vaccination course for those, such as military personnel, who need to booster their protection further, AstraZeneca has said.

The U.S. Food and Drug Administration authorized Regeneron's drug in September for use in preventing COVID-19 after exposure to infected people. AstraZeneca's application is however for prevention before any exposure.

Astra's AZD7442 fell through in the post-exposure setting in a trial in June. Another trial is ongoing to test the drug as a treatment of the infected. read more

In a statement on Tuesday, the Anglo-Swedish drugmaker said it included data in its filing with the FDA from a late-stage trial that showed the drug reduced the risk of people developing any COVID-19 symptoms by 77%. The positive trial data was published in August. read more

SUPPLY TALKS

A U.S. authorisation for AZD7442 - based on antibodies discovered by Vanderbilt University Medical Center in the United States - could be a major win for AstraZeneca, whose widely used COVID-19 vaccine has yet to be approved by U.S. authorities.

Talks regarding supply agreements for AZD7442 are ongoing with the United States and other governments, AstraZeneca said.

The company agreed in March to supply up to half a million extra doses of the antibody cocktail to the United States. The $205 million U.S. extension deal built on a U.S. contract a year ago for initial supplies of 200,000 doses. read more

In June last year, the U.S. provided $23.7 million in early funding for the development project.

Britain's government also has an in-principle agreement over a million doses of AZD7442. The government declined to provide an update.

Under a plan to set up a global production network, Astra enlisted contract manufacturer Lonza (LONN.S) a year ago to produce the antibody treatment in Portsmouth, New Hampshire, starting in the first half of 2021.

The company did not immediately respond to a request for an update on the supply and production agreements.

Astra's pioneering filing contrasts with delays in its quest for approval for its COVID-19 vaccine Vaxzevria in the United States, where the vast majority of those willing to get immunised have already received shots from the Pfizer-BioNTech (PFE.N)(22UAy.DE) alliance, Moderna (MRNA.O) or Johnson & Johnson.

Link to Article - Video:

https://www.reuters.com/world/us/astraz ... 021-10-05/

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New COVID Antivirals Are Coming

People newly infected with COVID-19 might soon have access to what essentially is Tamiflu for the novel coronavirus, a breakthrough that experts say would drastically alter the course of the ongoing pandemic

At least three contenders are vying to become the first antiviral pill that specifically targets COVID-19, according to reports from drug manufacturers.

Such a pill could be prescribed by your doctor and taken while you recuperate at home, potentially limiting the impact of a COVID infection on your body.

Merck & Co.'s antiviral drug molnupiravir leapt into the lead on Friday. That's when the company announced it will ask for quick U.S. approval for emergency use of their pill, after clinical trials showed it halved patients' risk of hospitalization or death from COVID.

But two other candidates also are well along in clinical trials: one from Pfizer Inc. and another from Roche and Atea Pharmaceuticals.

If they prove safe and effective, these drug candidates could keep people infected with COVID out of the hospital and prevent those around them from contracting the coronavirus, experts said.

"These are all drugs that in one way or another interfere with the multiplication of the virus," said Dr. William Schaffner, medical director of the Bethesda, Md.-based National Foundation for Infectious Diseases.

"If you were exposed and the virus is already in your body starting to multiply, if we could get in there early with these drugs that inhibit their multiplication, obviously the virus can't spread to other parts of your body -- thus sparing you developing illness or getting a milder illness," Schaffner said. "It also would make you less contagious to others."

People living with a COVID patient also might be able to get a prescription for one of these antivirals, Schaffner said.

"It might well be that we could give these drugs to family members who are exposed and never have them develop any infection at all," Schaffner said.

Existing treatments are flawed

There are already antiviral treatments available for people in the early throes of COVID, but they each have flaws that limit their usefulness.

Doctors have been using remdesivir -- a drug developed to treat Ebola -- to curb the damage done by a COVID infection, but its effectiveness is limited, said Dr. Amesh Adalja, a senior scholar with the Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security.

"What we've seen so far, drugs like remdesivir are not really knockout punches because they are kind of repurposed" from the viruses they originally targeted, Adalja said.

Monoclonal antibodies also can attack the virus in early infection, but "as you know they're in short supply and they're pretty darned expensive," Schaffner said. "They have to be given either intravenously or through a series of multiple injections under the skin, all of which makes things even more expensive, and you have to go to designated locations for treatment."

Adalja said, "What we've always needed is a Tamiflu equivalent to keep people out of the hospital, to decrease complications, but it takes time for antiviral drugs to be made because they're so specific to the viruses that are causing disease." Prescribed for flu, Tamiflu (oseltamivir) reduces flu symptoms and shortens recovery time.

Merck's announcement was electrifying, in part because the clinical trial results from molnupiravir were so positive that an independent data monitoring committee recommended stopping the study early so the company could pursue an emergency use authorization from the U.S. Food and Drug Administration.

Early results from phase 3 trials showed that molnupiravir cut the risk of hospitalization or death from COVID-19 by about 50%.

Around 7% of COVID patients treated with molnupiravir were either hospitalized or died within a month of taking the drug, compared with 14% of patients who received a placebo. The analysis was based on data from 775 patients who'd enrolled early in the trial.

Keeping people at home is a priority

"We always believed antivirals, especially an oral antiviral, would be an important contribution to the pandemic," Daria Hazuda, vice president of infectious diseases and vaccine discovery at Merck, told the Washington Post. "Keeping people out of the hospital is incredibly important, given the emergence of variants and the continued evolution of the virus."

Merck's news comes on the heels of Pfizer's announcement early last week that it had entered phase 2/3 clinical trials for a COVID antiviral it calls PF-07321332.

Pfizer's drug candidate would be taken in combination with the antiretroviral HIV drug ritonavir to see if it could keep COVID from spreading to healthy trial participants living in the same household as someone with a confirmed infection, the company said in a statement.

The trial plans to enroll up to 2,660 people who will be randomly assigned to receive either the pill or a placebo twice daily for 5 to 10 days.

Meanwhile, Roche and Atea Pharmaceuticals announced positive early results for its own experimental antiviral, AT-527, in late June.

Early data from phase 2 trials showed that in two days the pill reduced the viral load of COVID patients by 80% on average compared to placebo. However, the early analysis only involved data from 62 hospitalized, high-risk patients.

The Roche-Atea pill wound up clearing about 47% of patients within two weeks, making them completely COVID-free. By comparison, 22% of people taking a placebo were cleared of COVID in the same time frame.

Roche and Atea expect to announce more results from phase 2 and 3 trials later this year, the companies said.

The prospect of curbing COVID at home with a pill is cause for cautious celebration, Schaffner said.

"Isn't it great that we have at least three different firms working on three different drugs?" Schaffner said. "It's like the Olympics. We want to see who gets there first, but we would like to see all three of them be successful."

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Last chance to find virus origins

The World Health Organization (WHO) says a new taskforce may be the last chance to find the origins of Covid-19

It has nominated 26 experts to join the body, the Scientific Advisory Group on the Origins of Novel Pathogens (Sago).

More than a year-and-a-half since the virus was detected in the Chinese city of Wuhan, the question of how it first emerged remains unclear.

The team will consider if the virus jumped from animals to humans in Wuhan markets or leaked in a lab accident.

China has strongly refuted the second theory.

In February, a WHO team tasked with investigating Covid's origins flew to China and concluded that the virus had probably come from bats but that more work was needed.

But the WHO's director general, Dr Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, later said the investigation had been hampered by a lack of data and transparency from China.

The proposed members of the Sago group include six experts who visited China as part of the previous team.

Aside from coronavirus, Sago will also look into the origins of other high-risk pathogens.

"Understanding where new pathogens come from is essential for preventing future outbreaks," said Dr Tedros said.

In a joint editorial in the journal Science, Dr Tedros and other WHO officials said "a lab accident cannot be ruled out".

Michael Ryan, the WHO's emergencies director, said Sago's work may be the "last chance to understand the origins of this virus".

The announcement of the new group comes as CNN reported that China was preparing to test tens of thousands of blood bank samples taken in the early months of the pandemic.

But Chen Xu, China's ambassador to the UN in Geneva, said Sago's work should not be "politicised".

"It is time to send teams to other places," he said.

WHO caught up in geopolitical fight
Tulip Mazumdar, Global Health Correspondent

Almost two years since the start of the pandemic, we still don't know how or when the deadly Sars-Cov-2 virus emerged. Investigating new viruses is always extremely complex, but scientists have been able to find the source of the two previous coronavirus outbreaks - both of which have emerged from animals.

It's been nine months since the last WHO-convened mission returned from Wuhan, saying a similar animal spillover was the most likely source of the pandemic. But questions continue to be raised about a potential accident at a Wuhan lab which studies coronaviruses and keeps thousands of bat samples. China has strenuously denied this.

The WHO says China still hasn't shared crucial data from the earliest days of the pandemic. The UN agency - which has been caught in the firing line between China and the US's bigger geopolitical fight on this issue - has been hardening its language on investigations into a lab leak theory.

The science is becoming increasingly politicised, with China so far refusing to allow international scientists back into the country.

It's hoped this new Sago body with experts from 26 different countries will be able to break this impasse, and finally get some much needed answers so the world can better prepare for future outbreaks.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-58905945

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Conflicting Covid test results

At least 43,000 people may have been wrongly given a negative Covid test result, the UK Health Security Agency has said, as it announced the suspension of operations at a privately run lab in Wolverhampton

The announcement comes after dozens of people reported receiving a negative result after using a Covid PCR test, having got a positive result from their rapid lateral flow test, prompting scientists to call for an urgent investigation.

‘Is the number of cases actually higher than they are saying at the minute?’

On 21 September, my lateral flow test result showed up as positive, so I immediately self-isolated and booked a walk-through PCR test. While waiting for the PCR results, I did another lateral flow test, which was also positive. I was really confused as my lateral flow tests continued to show a positive result – all seven of them over a 10-day period. However, three PCR tests came back negative. I called the test-and-trace number for advice after the second PCR result came back negative and they said I did not need to self-isolate as the PCR tests were the better-quality test.

However, I decided I would self-isolate for 10 days as it felt very risky to not do so. It did slightly give me pause for thought as to how reliable PCR tests are, as they’re held up as the gold standard. It would be good to get more information as to what happened in Wolverhampton and how it’s gone terribly wrong. Are the number of cases actually higher than they are telling us at the minute? We seem to just be living with the virus but not getting the full picture of what’s going on. Jessica, 28, research administrator, Sheffield
‘I still don’t know if I have Covid or not’

James Calderwood carried on wearing a mask despite having taken a negative PCR test.

We had gone away at the beginning of September and me, my partner, who’s a teacher, and my 11-year-old son were all feeling awful, me especially. My first thought was I had Covid, so I did a lateral flow test, which came up positive. The next day I did a PCR test, which came back negative. A few days later my son was in a room with five other boys who all came down with Covid, but when he did a PCR test it came back negative. In the meantime, I started to feel worse, so I did another lateral flow test followed by a PCR test and the results were the same – positive then negative.

I have my 84-year-old mother staying with me, so it’s very concerning. I’ve been cautious, like wearing a face mask, and I’m fortunate in that I’m able to work remotely, but I still don’t know if I have Covid or not. In light of the situation in Wolverhampton, it’s very worrying to know I could have been passing the virus on to others. It’s important that we can trust these tests. If we don’t get this right, then it means the pandemic will last a lot longer and take us longer to recover. James Calderwood, 61, film editor, Bristol
‘I’m left wondering if my other children had Covid. I guess we’ll never know’

Lisa and Tim Harris. Lisa says her husband tested negative despite having classic Covid symptoms.

My husband, Tim, 52, developed a temperature on 7 October, so he went for a PCR test in Morden. He also took a lateral flow test, which was positive. The rest of the household took PCRs, and on the next day all of ours came back negative, including my husband’s. At this point, he had textbook Covid symptoms, and another lateral flow test was positive. Two of our three kids had already had runny noses since 4 October, so we’d immediately removed them from school. My son was desperate to go to a football tournament, and since his PCR was negative, it wouldn’t have been against school rules. But I said he could only go if he did a lateral flow test – which was positive. I decided to keep all my children home and we all self-isolated.

I saw on Twitter that there was an issue with false negatives, so I called the UK Health Security Agency to say we were experiencing the same. They told me they were aware of the issue, but there was no system in place to record cases where this may be happening. I believe PCRs have been very effective during the pandemic, but I’m concerned by what went wrong at the Wolverhampton lab. My husband and son’s Covid infections were picked up by a second PCR test on 8 October. I’m left wondering if my other children’s runny noses were in fact Covid, but I guess we’ll never know. Lisa Harris, 39, antenatal teacher, Wimbledon

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/ ... -pcr-tests

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Halabja warns new wave of Coronavirus

On Saturday, the General Directorate of Halabja Health announced an increase in infections with Coronavirus, warning of a new wave of the pandemic

Dr. Azad Mustafa, Director of Halabja Health, told PUKmedia, "The Number of Coronavirus infected people are increasing, and there are 6 critical cases in intensive care."

He continued, "The number of those who received the anti-coronavirus vaccine is less than what is required," urging citizens to receive vaccination and to follow health instructions against the virus.

Mustafa warned of a new wave of the pandemic and stressed the importance of prevention to avoid strains of Covid-19.

On Saturday, Halabja Governorate is witnessing the last day of the annual Pomegranate Festival, which many people from other cities attend.

https://www.pukmedia.com/EN/Details/69681