French Oil Expert: Kurdistan Oil Deals are Transparent and Standard ContractsERBIL, Kurdistan Region—Last week, Luis Martinez, research director of Sciences Po (Paris Institute of Political Studies) visited the Kurdistan Region as part of a delegation from the university. Luis Martinez presented a seminar arranged by Le Monde Diplomatique entitled “Oil: An Engine to Develop Kurdistan.” An oil expert, Luis Martinez spoke to Rudaw about the Kurdistan Regional Government’s oil contracts, saying that they have been made according to global standards.
Rudaw: As an oil expert, how much do you know about the Kurdistan Region’s oil policy?
Luis Martinez: I don’t have enough information. I believe I have to return to Kurdistan to conduct more research into this. Before I came, out of curiosity, I tried to gather as much information as possible by reading, but as a researcher I didn’t interview people who are experts in this particular field.
From what I understand, Kurdistan has 30 percent of Iraq’s oil reserve. Kurdistan has been able to present a better oil policy than the central government. For example, oil companies can save up to $2 for each barrel if they drill in Kurdistan, and that’s a lot of money for companies.
Rudaw: There is a concern that the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) gives most of the profit to the oil companies. Is this a bad thing?
Luis Martinez: The Kurdistan Region has a weak economic policy except for its oil sector policy. The more its oil sector grows, the more the region develops. It is a good idea for the Kurdistan Region to give more profit to the oil companies. Most oil-rich countries can develop their economy considerably if they use what they have correctly.
“The challenge for Kurdish authorities is that, if this policy is not used correctly, it will turn against society,”If I was conducting research in this field, I would mention how the Kurdish authorities control this sector and how they use it for the interests of their people. I would also research how oil revenue could be used to develop the society. The challenge for Kurdish authorities is that, if this policy is not used correctly, it will turn against society.
Rudaw: The KRG has signed almost 40 oil contracts, but the central government and the Kurdish opposition parties complain that the KRG has not been transparent about these contracts. Are the contents of oil contracts usually revealed to the public in other countries?
Luis Martinez: What the KRG has done is not less transparent than other countries. The KRG contracts are normal. The oil companies that have signed oil contracts with the KRG have been legally and carefully advised about the requirements. They have carefully studied Article 112 of the Iraqi constitution that stipulates the KRG is allowed to sign oil contracts with oil companies.
According to the constitution, in cases where new oil fields are found in Kurdistan, the KRG has a right to sign contracts with oil companies directly without consulting the central government. However, politically, the KRG must be very careful because if the central government offers a better deal to these companies, they will turn their back on Kurdistan and go to Baghdad.
Oil companies could take advantage of the disputes between the KRG and the central government in order to decrease the price of oil. For example, Baghdad requires 60 percent of the profits from each barrel, but the KRG only requires 40 percent. If Baghdad changed the deal to 30 percent, then gradually the tax would decrease and companies would take advantage of the situation for their own benefit.
The Kurdistan Region and the central government have enough reserve oil to last for another 100 years, that’s why the oil companies are patient. It would be ideal for Baghdad and the KRG to come to an agreement in order to sustain the high price of oil.
Rudaw: What is the significance of having big oil companies like ExxonMobil and Total in the Kurdistan Region?
Luis Martinez: It means Kurdistan is rich in oil and it is easy for them to get this oil. In addition, they can easily export the oil through Turkey. They also have legal security and there is not a big concern that the government will take over the oil fields. They can also pressure Baghdad this way and make an offer to them. The oil companies would be happy if Baghdad offered them the same deal as the Kurdistan Region. Currently, Baghdad only signs a service contract with oil companies and that is less attractive to companies and has less benefit for them.
Rudaw: Do you think these large oil companies would support the Kurdistan Region if it declared independence?
Luis Martinez: Kurdish authorities could use the existence of these large companies in Kurdistan in a bid for independence, but their goal is not independence for Kurdistan. That would compromise their business because declarations of independence can bring war and instability.
As a historical example, in the past large oil companies tried to make the Biafra region, which is an oil-rich territory in Nigeria, independent because it offered a huge benefit for them. As a result, war broke out and Nigerian troops occupied the region. Since then, oil companies have been dealing with such regions carefully.
“Kurdish authorities could use the existence of these large companies in Kurdistan in a bid for independence,” Rudaw: How can Kurdistan use its oil for the purpose of independence?
Luis Martinez: The past 50 years have shown that federal regions, where there is oil and the people have been oppressed by the central government, are always thinking about independence. But the central government can treat the people of these regions well and grant them their rights, as we have seen in the regions of Alberta in Canada and Alaska in the U.S. Their people are willing to stay under their governments.
Rudaw: The Kurdistan Region is currently exporting 250,000 barrels of oil every day and that is expected to increase to 1 million barrels a day. Is it better for Kurdistan to save its oil or export it while it only gets 17 percent of the income?
Luis Martinez: The amount of oil that the Kurdistan Region is currently exporting is not much. On the contrary, it is little for a region whose only income comes from exporting oil. Any small country can export that much oil. For Kurdistan to become more attractive, it should produce at least 1 million barrels a day.
Even that amount is not very large. Saudi Arabia produces 10 million barrels a day. The U.S. produces 7 million barrels a day and Norway produces 4 million barrels a day. Venezuela and Libya each produce 1.5 million barrels. It would not be bad if Kurdistan increased its oil production to more than 1 million barrels.
Rudaw: In Kurdistan, the other economic sectors have been ignored. For example, the health, education and agriculture sectors have been completely ignored. Would you say Kurdistan has the Dutch Disease?
Luis Martinez: Kurdistan has no industry. Kurdistan’s market is not in danger of collapsing because it only depends on the oil sector and doesn’t have an economic market.
It is true that Kurdistan can face a few problems that other countries had encountered in the past. The first would be if Kurdistan overly depends on oil. Secondly, if there was a lack of control over government spending with the large revenues from oil. An increase in government spending where they are building skyscrapers is dangerous. The final problem is if Kurdistan has a consuming society, where as long as the oil price is high the government does well, but when the oil price declines there is economic crisis.
There are many great models for Kurdistan to follow in order to not face these problems. For example, Norway and Qatar sell oil, but they don’t spend the oil revenue. Norway keeps the oil revenue in a safe while Qatar saves it in a bank and uses its interest for its people. In Norway, the most oil-rich country in Europe, the price of one liter of gas is 2 kroner (US$0.35 or 405 Iraqi dinars). The government wants the people to depend on themselves. In Norway, fishing is very popular. The government encourages its people not to turn their backs on their careers.
It is true that Kurdistan has oil, but it shouldn’t ignore other sectors. Kurdistan must follow a model like Norway. It should save its oil revenue in a safe and teach people to depend on themselves. However, it is not easy for Kurdistan to duplicate Norway’s model because Norway directly sells its oil, but Kurdistan must export its oil through Turkey. Kurdistan must try to form a strategic alliance with Turkey.
“Currently, Kurdistan is handling Baghdad very well. It is not the Kurds who are creating problems; it is Baghdad not treating the Kurds well.”
Rudaw: How should Kurdistan do that?
Luis Martinez: Turkey is at the center of the game; others will become allies of Kurdistan easily. If I were Turkey, I would tell Kurdistan to send its oil to Europe through my country. The closer Kurdistan is to Turkey, the further it is to Baghdad. Kurdistan will need Turkey to protect it.
Maybe in the next several years, Turkey will put political conditions on Kurdistan, saying that since it allowed Kurdistan to export oil through its country, Kurdistan must, in return, force the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) to leave its soil. If Kurdistan does not meet this condition, then Turkey would stop allowing oil to be sent through the country. In the next five years, there will be economic growth and five-star hotels and nice roads, and it will be difficult for the Kurdistan Region to not be able to export its oil.
Rudaw: If Turkey ends up not being a safe passage for Kurdistan’s oil, what should Kurdistan do?
Luis Martinez: I don’t know what will be best for Kurdistan to do. The economic growth and development will have its own consequences. Sometimes, someone else has to pay the price in order for these things to happen. So, it is important to find a political solution for Turkey’s Kurdish issue.
Rudaw: How should Kurdistan deal with Baghdad when it comes to oil disputes?
Luis Martinez: Currently, Kurdistan is handling Baghdad very well. It is not the Kurds who are creating problems; it is Baghdad not treating the Kurds well. The Kurds can take advantage of Baghdad’s mistakes. Baghdad’s poor treatment can end up benefiting the Kurds.
The oil contracts that have been signed by the Kurdistan Region with the oil companies are standard contracts. This is the way it is done everywhere else anyway. The main issue is not whether Kurdistan can get revenue through its oil contracts; it is how successful Kurdistan can be in using this income for the interests of its people.