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Iraqi Election Results

A place to talk about domestic politics in Middle East (Iran, Iraq , Turkey, Syria) Also includes topics about Assyrian, Armenian, Chaldean .

Iraqi Election Results

PostAuthor: Anthea » Sun Oct 10, 2021 12:23 am

Poll predicts win for Sadr Movement

A nationwide opinion poll conducted by the Baghdad-based al-Rafidain Center for Dialogue (RCD) predicts the Shiite Sadr Movement to win the Iraqi election, followed by the Fatah Alliance, its rival Shiite bloc headed by Hadi al-Amiri

The survey, conducted across the 18 provinces in Iraq between Sept. 25 and Oct. 5, 2021 shows Sadr Movement is to win 47 seats. The opinion poll calculated the best, medium and worst-case scenarios for all the political parties. Sadr's Sairoon coalition is expected to win 53, 47 and 43 seats in each category, respectively.

Sairoon - then a coalition of the Sadr Movement, the Iraqi communist party and some smaller Iraqi entities - won the last Iraqi election with 54 secured seats.

The poll surveyed 5,700 people across the provinces with 300 questionnaire sheets except for Baghdad, which has 69 seats up for grabs and received 600 forms.

The RCD said that Saladin, Baghdad and Nineveh have the highest numbers of candidates per electoral district, with 64.3 candidates per district. Kurdistan Region's provinces have the least number of candidates per an electoral district, with Duhok numbering just eight candidates per district.

The center states that the high number of the candidates in the rest of Iraq might "shatter the votes,” whereas the situation in the Kurdistan Region means that candidates might receive a higher share of the votes.

The poll results slate the Kurdistan Democratic Party, the largest Kurdish party in the Kurdistan Region, to win 32 seats in a best-case scenario or 24 in a worst-case scenario. The KDP has said that they will maintain or increase their votes in the upcoming election.

Of those surveyed, 37.2 percent indicated their intention to take part in the election, 50.5 responded they would not and 12.3 were undecided.

According to the survey, public trust in the transparency of the election is almost even, 41.6 percent responded the election will be transparent and clean, and 42.1 percent did not have any trust at all.

Of the respondents, 70 percent said they would not trust the candidates to follow up on promises they made during the election campaign. In Dhi Qar, a southern province where it witnessed one of the bloodiest protests that led to the resignation of the former Iraqi cabinet in late 2019, only 17 percent believed the candidates will meet their promises. Anbar and Erbil with 77.8 and 56 percent, respectively, scored the highest trust in their candidates.

https://www.rudaw.net/english/middleeast/iraq/091020212
Last edited by Anthea on Tue Oct 12, 2021 11:50 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Iraqi Election Results

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Re: Iraqi Elections a lose lose result bringing further conf

PostAuthor: Anthea » Mon Oct 11, 2021 4:37 pm

New Generation takes win

Mohammad finished work at 4pm in Erbil, jumped into his Toyota Corolla and drove as fast as he could to reach Dukan district in Sulaimani province. He needed to be there before sunset to cast his vote in Iraq’s 2018 parliamentary election. There was a reason why he drove so dangerously. His father, the head of his tribe of around 500 people, decided that they would vote for the Change Movement, known as Gorran in Kurdish

During the past three years, the Change Movement has shifted from being an opposition party to part of the ruling elite with ministers and officials in the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) at a time when the general public suffered as a result of the economic downturn due to low oil prices and the COVID-19 pandemic that emptied government coffers in early 2020. The KRG passed some of the burden onto the public sector, introducing austerity measures and slashing salaries for its civil servants.

For a party that had galvanized the public since 2009 with an anti-establishment slogan, it was not a surprise that on Sunday, the electorate refused to send even one candidate from the party to the Iraqi parliament. Out of the 500 people from Mohammad’s tribe, no one took part in the election this time around, including Mohammad.

The turnout on Sunday was perhaps a historic low, just above 41% according to the initial assessment by the Independent High Electoral Commission (IHEC), which calculated turnout based on the number of registered voters who cast a ballot. The turnout of eligible voters was just 36%.

The turnout in Sulaimani, the heartland of Gorran, was 37% while in the capital Baghdad it was 32%. Turnout has steadily fallen in the past two decades. In Iraq’s first post-Saddam Hussein election in 2005, the turnout was around 80%. By 2018, it was 44%.

The refusal of the majority of the Iraqi electorate to take part in the election is a resounding dismissal of the way the ruling elite have managed the country since the US-led coalition removed the previous regime from power in 2003. When the EU chief election observer Viola von Cramon was asked in a school in Baghdad on Sunday afternoon about the low turnout, she said it was a “political message” to the ruling elite and she hoped they would heed that message.

This has helped the smaller opposition parties like New Generation to take advantage of the general voter fatigue and entice some disillusioned former Gorran voters. Gorran supporters reacted to the defining defeat of their movement on social media, calling on party leaders to resign.

“The Change Movement disappointed 500,000 of its voters,” Mahamad Hamalaw said on Facebook, adding that the reason for losing the votes was because they joined the ruling parties.

In this election, Gorran formed a coalition with its former foe the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (PUK).

“Commercializing on peoples’ votes has a heavy price,” Tahseen Hassan said on Facebook.

“Gorran was born in 2009 from within the PUK but died in the PUK arms in 2021,” Sardar Abdulrahman wrote on Facebook.

Bigger parties such as the Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP), the PUK, the Sadrist Movement, the Fatah Alliance, and State of the Law have their own portion of the population that vote for them no matter what.

“For the ruling parties, votes from their social bases matter, especially in the context of a low turnout where the disillusioned are voiceless. Each seat translates to enhanced bargaining power in the government’s formation,” Chatham House’s Renad Mansour and Hayder Al-Shakeri wrote a few days before voting day. “As with previous elections, this one features little of a policy or ideological debate as parties rely primarily on the political economy to secure votes from their bases, offering public service jobs, distributing goods and services, and announcing infrastructure projects.”

In the Kurdistan Region, the KDP and New Generation appear to be the big winners. KDP has increased its seats from 25 in 2018 election to a projected more 33. It appears to have won nine seats in Nineveh province alone. The New Generation won four seats in the 2018 election and is projected to be guaranteed eight seats this time round, possibly nine according to a tally from Rudaw’s election desk. The PUK won 18 seats in 2018, has secured 15 seats this time round and may take another three.

The two main Islamic parties have won four seats, according to unofficial results, similar to 2018 with the Kurdistan Islamic Union possibly increasing its seats from three to four.

https://www.rudaw.net/english/kurdistan/11102021
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Re: Iraqi Elections a lose lose result bringing further conf

PostAuthor: Anthea » Tue Oct 12, 2021 11:28 pm

Iraq delays final election result

Iraq’s electoral commission said on Tuesday it would not meet a deadline to announce final results from the national poll held two days earlier

Independent High Electoral Commission officials said they needed more time to manually count unopened ballot boxes in all governorates, to ensure the election was free and fair.

“There are 3,177 outstanding ballot boxes that were not included in the initial results and will be manually counted,” Judge Jalil Adnan, IHEC’s chairman, said in Baghdad.

The boxes will be counted at the Iraqi capital’s National Centre in the presence of international observers and the media. They are estimated to contain about 60,000 votes in total.

Mr Adnan said the initial results, announced on Monday, were in for 94 per cent of polling stations.

Results from the remaining 6 per cent, and the complaints process, could yet change the overall results.

The commission has given the public, candidates and political parties until Thursday to submit any complaints for investigation.

On Tuesday, pro-Iranian Shiite Muslim parties and armed groups denounced the early poll results as “manipulation” and a “scam”.

The boxes will be counted by hand because “the data did not show a consistent result from each box or there were technical issues”, Sajad Jiyad, an Iraqi researcher with the Century Foundation think tank, told The National.

“If accurate, then this could affect a few seats but not the results in general,” Mr Jiyad said.

But the delay invites suspicions of “something untoward occurring” in an already fragile process with a low turnout, Mr Jiyad said.

“Already, some parties claim there has been fraud and used the delay to back up their claim that IHEC is not being honest,” he said.

By the latest count, the Sadrist bloc, led by populist cleric Moqtada Al Sadr, was leading with 73 seats in the 329-member assembly, putting it in pole position to nominate the prime minister and take the lion’s share of Cabinet positions.

Last year, Prime Minister Mustafa Al Kadhimi called an early general election for June 2021, months ahead of the date planned initially.

The decision was in response to demands from anti-government protesters, who since 2019 have staged months of mass demonstrations and been killed by the hundreds by both government forces and militia groups.

https://www.thenationalnews.com/mena/ir ... ouncement/
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Re: Iraqi Elections a lose lose result bringing further conf

PostAuthor: Anthea » Tue Oct 12, 2021 11:42 pm

Iraqi election shakes up Kurdish politics

Iraq’s parliamentary election has shaken up Kurdish politics, handing out surprise wins and devastating blows

Many expected the Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP), the ruling party in the Kurdistan Region, would lose seats because of the financial crisis and the government’s failure to pay the salaries of its civil servants on time and in full for years. However, the party campaigned hard, returning to the disputed provinces and running candidates in some southern provinces, hoping to gain a few more seats than the 25 it won in 2018.

According to official preliminary results, the KDP exceeded its expectations and won 32 seats. Masoud Barzani, KDP leader, published a congratulatory message late Monday, saying he hopes Kurdish parties will be united and “work together for their mutual objective and the high interests of Kurdistan.”

The party, however, received fewer votes in total and lost two seats in its stronghold Duhok.

The low turnout saved the KDP and the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (PUK), according to researcher Mera J. Bakr.

“What is very important to look at is the amount of votes these parties have lost. [The] KDP has lost votes even in Duhok. What has saved them is the fact that people did not go to vote. If people go to the polls like they did in 2013 and vote against [the] KDP and PUK, they will face an existential threat,” he said.

The opposition party New Generation won three seats in 2018, its first run in Iraqi elections. It tripled that result in this election, taking five seats in Sulaimani and three in Erbil. Its candidate in Kirkuk, Omed Hama, a former reporter for the party-affiliated NRT TV station, also won a seat.

“The New Generation is heralding a new era in Iraqi and Kurdish politics,” tweeted party leader Shaswar Abdulwahid.

New Generation is on the road to replacing the Change Movement (Gorran) as the third largest party in the Kurdistan Region, according to Bakr.

Gorran was founded in 2009 as an opposition party by a group who broke away from the PUK and stormed into the Kurdistan Region parliament with 25 seats that same year. Gorran was able to mobilize the public and hold nationwide protests, but that has changed. Its participation in the current cabinet of the Kurdistan Region Government (KRG) stopped it from criticizing the government and its alliance with the PUK for the Iraqi election angered many supporters.

The party failed to win any seats this election and its governing body said they take responsibility for the defeat and promised a thorough review and radical changes.

The PUK went into the election divided after a power struggle between its co-chairs Bafel Talabani and Lahur Talabany this summer. Lahur Talabany was forced out of the leadership. The PUK won 17 seats, according to official preliminary results.

Barham Salih, PUK leadership member and president of Iraq, spoke on the phone with Qubad Talabani, head of the PUK-Gorran coalition, and the two described the elections as “successful,” according to media affiliated with the party.

The PUK alleged fraud took place in Erbil province, where it won one seat, saying the ballot boxes were “tampered with.” The Kurdistan Justice Group (Komal) also rejected the results in Erbil.

The Kurdistan Islamic Union (KIU) won four seats, doubling its representation in the Iraqi parliament, thanks to a strong showing in Duhok.

Komal won just a single seat on Sunday; it had two in the last session parliament which was dissolved days before elections. The party recently dropped the word Islamic from its name in a bid to reach more people.

Komal spokesperson Mohammed Hakim apologized to party members and supporters for the defeat. Speaking on behalf of the party leadership, Hakim said the party was sorry “for failing to gain projected results.” He added that the party will prepare for a “new program” starting from Tuesday.

https://www.rudaw.net/english/middleeast/iraq/121020213
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Re: Iraqi Elections a lose lose result bringing further conf

PostAuthor: Anthea » Tue Oct 12, 2021 11:43 pm

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KDP reveals strategy behind Iraqi election victory

The Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP) on Tuesday revealed the “strategy” it used in Iraqi parliamentary elections to make gains in Sunday’s Iraqi parliamentary elections. However, rivals believe the low turnout was the most important factor in the KDP’s success

The KDP, which is the dominant party in the Kurdistan Region, won 25 seats in the 2018 elections in Iraq, but secured at least 32 seats on Sunday’s polling, according to official preliminary results. Party officials have claimed there is a possibility they may win a couple of seats more once all votes are counted.

This victory was unexpected to many as the Region has been suffering from a financial crisis and the KDP-dominated Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) has failed to pay its civil servants in full and on time for years. The number of votes the party received have also significantly decreased compared to the previous elections. But how did the KDP gain at least seven more seats on Sunday?

Hoshyar Zebari, who led the party’s election campaign, revealed to reporters on Tuesday the “strategy” that his team, which included several top party officials, had drafted in light of the new electoral law.

The KDP chose to make telephone calls and house visits to constituents based on an internal zoning system, asking registered voters from each zone to vote for a specific candidate. For example, the KDP official Twitter account published maps guiding the KDP registered voters of 16 neighborhoods in Erbil to vote for female candidate Nahla Qadir. This map was sometimes updated in other parts of the province due to changes in calculations.

Other parties who appear to have done well are the Sadrists, who have been in negotiations with the KDP even prior to the elections about the future of governance in Iraq.

According to the new electoral system, if a candidate gained more votes than needed to win a seat, the rest of the votes will not be given to another candidate from the same party but be wasted - unlike the previous system.

“We have been working very secretly as a team recently,” Zebari said. “Based on an order from the President [Masoud Barzani] we spoke less and worked more.”

KDP leader Masoud Barzani had asked all party officials not to respond to false claims or be involved in any war of words - but focus on the election campaign. Zebari claimed that this “strategy” proved to be practical as the party’s rivals gained less seats, referencing the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (PUK), which heavily targeted the KDP during the campaign but made losses this election.

The first sign of this new strategy emerged when the KDP Deputy Leader Nechirvan Barzani told KDP supporters in several locations including in Duhok on October 3 that they should follow the clear-cut instructions from the party and vote for the candidates specified for them.

“It is important to know how to vote. The new electoral rule has not been implemented before. It definitely has pros and cons. The most important thing about this new system is that voters should abide by the program set up by the party. It does not matter which candidate or tribe gains the most votes. We only have one objective in this election: victory for the KDP,” he said.

“Everyone should listen to the instructions issued for them by the KDP and its leadership. There should not be issues in this regard. When a candidate gains more votes than another one, this will cause us trouble,” added Barzani.

The plans seem to have worked well because most of its candidates won seats in the Kurdistan Region. In Erbil’s District 1, which covered KDP strongholds like Soran and Barzan, the party’s candidates gained similar results: Sipan Aziz (25,233), Nahro Mahmoud (29,649) and Mohammed Sadiq (24,128).

Despite female KDP candidate Jwan Abdullah only gaining 9,174 while PUK candidate Faysal Karimkhan, from the powerful Bradosti tribe, gaining 18,443 votes in the same district, Abdullah won the seat due to the quota system for women.

Shaswar Abdulwahid, leader of the New Generation, told reporters on Tuesday that the KDP is not a winner of the election because its overall votes decreased and attributed the party’s wins to the low turnout in the elections, which was 41 percent.

“The results gained by the KDP and PUK were the worst in the last 30 years. The population of the Kurdistan [Region] was nearly three million people 30 years ago and the KDP gained 600,000 votes [in the first election]. After 30 years, the population of Kurdistan has doubled, meaning the KDP’s votes ought to be 1.2 million but it is actually 400,000,” Abdulwahid said.

Zebari disagreed and told reporters on Tuesday that it was not the KDP vote that lost popularity, but was the low turnout that affected the vote numbers.

The KDP plan for the elections “was generally good but it was not satisfactory. We had issues in some areas and we lacked necessary coordination in some other places. If everyone abided to the plan and strategy, believe me we would gain much more [seats]," added Zebari.

https://www.rudaw.net/english/kurdistan/12102021
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Re: Iraqi Election Results

PostAuthor: Anthea » Tue Oct 12, 2021 11:52 pm

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Re: Iraqi Election Results

PostAuthor: Anthea » Thu Oct 14, 2021 1:05 am

Gorran leadership resigns

All members of Change Movement's (Gorran) governing body, which includes its top leader, announced their resignations late Wednesday following the party’s unprecedented defeat in Iraq’s parliamentary elections. A temporary body has been appointed to take charge of the party

“As an act of taking responsibility for this sensitive stage, we as the governing body of the Gorran movement have decided to resign. Meanwhile, a temporary body will be formed to govern the movement,” read a statement from the body.

Gorran, which won five seats in 2018, did not win any seats in Sunday’s parliamentary elections, according to preliminary results. The party’s leadership has acknowledged its role in the defeat.

“We apologize to the Gorran Movement voters and we bear responsibility for the mistakes and shortcomings … for losing the trust of people,” the governing body said on Monday.

Gorran’s National Assembly, second most powerful body, welcomed the move by the governing body which includes general coordinator Omar Sayyid Ali.

The assembly said that the resignations are “appreciated and are a direct response to the wills of Gorran supporters for change,” promising changes within the party as well as meeting with supporters.

Gorran entered the election race in coalition with its mother party, the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (PUK), which also faced losses in the election.

PUK co-chair Bafel Talabani had hoped before the election that both parties could unite but this seems a long shot now as their coalition is said to have contributed to Gorran’s defeat.

Hours before Gorran’s governing body made the decision, the party's general coordinator visited Talabani, whose office later said he told his election ally their alliance would continue.

Gorran is a pro-reform party that shook the foundation of the ruling parties during the 2009 Kurdistan election by winning 25 seats in the 111 regional assembly in Erbil. The PUK and the Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP) together received only 59 seats in that vote.

https://www.rudaw.net/english/kurdistan/131020211
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