Fatih Cekirge: The bombs to PKK, recognition to Barzani

[zurderer]

Carrying good is not a problem as far as Kurds remain part of Iraq. It can be done on Iraq. And as far as the USA is backing up KRG, no other country would bother to challenge with her.


My friend carrying itself is not a problem. Cost of carrying is the problem and USA cannot make it more cheaper for you.




Plus, each neighbouring country has substantial Kurdish minorities. They had better to get on well with Northern Iraq. Any instability there will spread to your homes. So, too much pressure will hurt you as well. In the end, Kurds dont have much to lose, anyway.


Like when? Turkey was entering north iraq or Turkey was jailing Ocalan? You are hoping much.

[Savy]

My friend carrying itself is not a problem. Cost of carrying is the problem and USA cannot make it more cheaper for you.

Zurderer, dostum, what goods are going to be transported to the world markets from Middle East? Only the oil, Kurds and Arabs dont have industry, you know that. And the transportation of oil is done via pipeline on Turkey (Kerkuk-Ceyhan), on Jordan (I dont know the name of Jordanian pipeline) and on Basra. Considering the fact that the world needs oil, carrying petrol out of Middle East is not a Kurdish problem. Securing the safe and cheap transportation of oil is not a matter of Kurds to think, but the rest of the world. You know the USA and Western armies are here to secure the oil supply. So as far as Kurds concerned, they dont have to much worry about the transportation of oil. Regarding the other goods, I think KRG remaining part of Iraq will help a lot. Iraq buys the goods and Kurds get their share from Iraqi. I mean, Iraqi Kurds maybe less dependant on their neighbours than you seem to think.

Like when? Turkey was entering north iraq or Turkey was jailing Ocalan? You are hoping much.

I am not hoping anything such as a wide scale rebellion. I am stating the fact that the entire middle-east is ethno-religious techtonic zone. It's the best interest of neighbouring countries to get on well with each other. Otherwise every ethnicity in the region, be it Arab, Kurd, Turk, Persian will be in serious trouble.

[zurderer]

Zurderer, dostum, what goods are going to be transported to the world markets from Middle East? Only the oil, Kurds and Arabs dont have industry, you know that. And the transportation of oil is done via pipeline on Turkey (Kerkuk-Ceyhan), on Jordan (I dont know the name of Jordanian pipeline) and on Basra. Considering the fact that the world needs oil, carrying petrol out of Middle East is not a Kurdish problem. Securing the safe and cheap transportation of oil is not a matter of Kurds to think, but the rest of the world. You know the USA and Western armies are here to secure the oil supply.


Haha. Indeed, but as we both know oil is not enough to be a developed country, even a standart country. Oil depended economy is not a healty economy.



Regarding the other goods, I think KRG remaining part of Iraq will help a lot. Iraq buys the goods and Kurds get their share from Iraqi. I mean, Iraqi Kurds maybe less dependant on their neighbours than you seem to think.

are we talking about private sector? Firsly, you are overestimating power of iraqi goverment.Secondly, I think, iraq goverment main concern is not turkey or iran but Barzani..

[Savy]

Haha. Indeed, but as we both know oil is not enough to be a developed country, even a standart country. Oil depended economy is not a healty economy.

Yeah, I know that. But don't forget Norway. Norway was a relatively poor country before oil discovered. They have used the oil revenues wisely and now they have one of the highest life standarts. Plus, oil may be politically very useful at the moment for Kurds, because oil prices are going up, and every drip of oil getting more and more valuable. That means the security and stability of Kurdish region should be maintained to extract and transport the oil safely. Of course in the long run, diversifying economy is crucial in order to maintain a sustainable country.

are we talking about private sector? Firsly, you are overestimating power of iraqi goverment.Secondly, I think, iraq goverment main concern is not turkey or iran but Barzani..

No not the private sector. I mean, Kurds being part of Iraq can be very useful at times when Iran and Turkey apply sanctations on Iraqi Kurds. Kurds can go on their trade relations with external world on Iraq.
Well, as you say, there is a probability that Iraqi Arabs may want to limit the autonomy of KRG after Iraq is pacified a bit. This is likely. I am not well informed about the internal politics of Iraq at all, so I dont know the chances of such scenario. Maybe I am being too optimistic anyway

Why dont you use quote buttons?

[Tirigan]

so you say. Too bad noone give any shit to your words. If you speak more sensible, Maybe at least, I can show some interest to your bla bla. Majority of kurds does not support PKK or pkk party, DTP. So I will prefer to listen them.

By the way, It is interesting majority of DTP voters live at Turkish majority cities. Oh so you want to tell me, They want to divide Turkey. Now, That is a big joke.

I just have to say 1 thing. Erdogan can hold a referendum for fun and we will see how many Kurds want to live with Turanians.

But Turanians are to stupid to admit they’re wrong. You can’t talk with them like to the normal people. The only language they understand is the language of the sword.

[Vladimir]

Yeah, I know that. But don't forget Norway. Norway was a relatively poor country before oil discovered. They have used the oil revenues wisely and now they have one of the highest life standarts. Plus, oil may be politically very useful at the moment for Kurds, because oil prices are going up, and every drip of oil getting more and more valuable. That means the security and stability of Kurdish region should be maintained to extract and transport the oil safely. Of course in the long run, diversifying economy is crucial in order to maintain a sustainable country.

I don't think you can compare it with Norway. Maybe some Arabic state, but NOT Norway. Complete different culture, mindset, weather, geography, and different neighbours.

[Savy]

Yes, I am fully aware of it, Vladimir. However, oil is a blessing for Kurds to recover and heal their decades old pain inflicted region, of course, on condition that they will have a fine oil revenue and be able to command the oil fields.

[zurderer]

Yeah, I know that. But don't forget Norway. Norway was a relatively poor country before oil discovered. They have used the oil revenues wisely and now they have one of the highest life standarts.

They are not living in middle east, They have not inner turmoil and They have not problems with everyone of their neighbors.
I am not even talking about their educational superiority too north iraq.

Plus, oil may be politically very useful at the moment for Kurds, because oil prices are going up, and every drip of oil getting more and more valuable.

And oil can attract unnecessary interest to north iraq.(Central iraq goverment, Turkey and one million other nations.)

This means the security and stability of Kurdish region should be maintained to extract and transport the oil safely. Of course in the long run, diversifying economy is crucial in order to maintain a sustainable country.

So tell me how many oil producing country in middle east has stability and securty. Yeah, some minor countries. But kurdish region is not minor. Oil is a double sided knife and It generally cut the one who had oil.

Of course in the long run, diversifying economy is crucial in order to maintain a sustainable country.

And a rich and near market to sell your goods. That is why armenia is such a poor state. She cannot selling his good to Turkey.

No not the private sector. I mean, Kurds being part of Iraq can be very useful at times when Iran and Turkey apply sanctations on Iraqi Kurds. Kurds can go on their trade relations with external world on Iraq.

Of course, kurds can do this. They can do use air planes for trade too. But look at map, south part of iraq is not a good place to trade with EU and It has inner conflicts.(Bad for trade.)

Kurds can survive but can they gain richness? Without trading Turkey and iran, It is impossible. We are the biggest market, Kurds can enter. Trade has relation with logistic and cost. Turkey is best candidate, not only one but best one.

Well, as you say, there is a probability that Iraqi Arabs may want to limit the autonomy of KRG after Iraq is pacified a bit. This is likely. I am not well informed about the internal politics of Iraq at all, so I dont know the chances of such scenario. Maybe I am being too optimistic anyway

They will try, will they succeed, this is another question. But just look at now, Because you had no good relation with neighbors, You want to stay inside of iraq. So when Iraqian arabs try this, Turkey, iran and syria will support this. Kurds will get support from who? USA. will usa prefer iraqian arabs or kurds is another interesting question.

Just for info, They did not show any interest, when turkey entered iraqian soil. Infact, I think they liked it. Not, Kurdish independence is doomed.(at least, at short run.)

I just have to say 1 thing. Erdogan can hold a referendum for fun and we will see how many Kurds want to live with TuraniansI

why? because you want soo? Kurdish nationalist party get 2 million one and 1 million of them is from western part of turkey. Just guess, what would happen If a referandum happen. Infact, only 3-5 cities, Kurdish nationalist have majority.(This does not include, bigger cities like diyarbakır, mardin, van.)

By the way, Of course, kurdish nationalist can support independence at hakkari but I am sure, They will not do it at istanbul.

Also For your info, In reality, no kurdish party support independence except you.(Yeah, even DTP is unwishful about giving up Turkey richness.)

Yes, I am fully aware of it, Vladimir. However, oil is a blessing for Kurds to recover and heal their decades old pain inflicted region, of course, on condition that they will have a fine oil revenue and be able to command the oil fields.

Maybe, It is blessing and maybe It is a curse.

[Savy]

They will try, will they succeed, this is another question. But just look at now, Because you had no good relation with neighbors, You want to stay inside of iraq. So when Iraqian arabs try this, Turkey, iran and syria will support this. Kurds will get support from who? USA. will usa prefer iraqian arabs or kurds is another interesting question.

Just for info, They did not show any interest, when turkey entered iraqian soil. Infact, I think they liked it. Not, Kurdish independence is doomed.(at least, at short run.)

No matter what happens, the situation in middle east will not continue in this way. Either way, Kurds will eventually break up from Iraq and Turkey. Because of ethnic conflict, the state apparatuses are getting weaker and losing stability. Continues oppression and repression of Kurds and their own citizens are a sign of weakness. Iran is a failed state, Syria is another one, you know Iraq and Turkey is walking on the edge. These countries may continue to rule their own people (including their own population) by iron hand for another decade. But in the end they are doomed to fall apart and occurance of internal conflicts is certain. So I dont really give rat ass about how Iran does, Syria does, Turkey does behave.. They are not governed by reason, but tyranny; it is stupid for Kurds to wait their tyrannical neighbours to come to reasonable terms and start beneficial relations, of course they will try to do their best with what they have at the moment. And what Kurds want are reasonable things: To be able to survive as a nation, to receive respect and dignity, a bit economic welfare and security. So in a way, I am convinced that these regimes will give way to much liberal ones.
If Kurdistan becomes indenpendent, they can make trade on Armenia. Trust me, once it is independent (with the territories from Turkey, Iran etc) it will have full backing of the west. and trade relations will be done via Armenia and Georgia It is not that hard.

Kurds have a small army, peshamerge forces in Iraq you know. Limiting Kurdish autonomy will cause armed conflict within Iraq. Look at Beni Sadr's militias, they could not be demilitarized because they used their weapons. Something similar may happen with Kurds.

[Savy]

And oil can attract unnecessary interest to north iraq.(Central iraq goverment, Turkey and one million other nations.)

There will some sort of compromise on oil between the central iraqi government and KRG. Turkey is the guardian of western interest in the region. She will do whatever the west tells her. Of course she will get her share. Turkey meddling into oil issue is a big trouble. Because it will escalate into a huge regional war. The worst scenario for the world.
One million other nations' interest is beneficial, they will try to settle region in order to have secure and cheap oil supply. Oil is a strategic commodity.

And a rich and near market to sell your goods. That is why armenia is such a poor state. She cannot selling his good to Turkey.

Nowadays Armenia has been performing well. They sell their goods to Russia. Not dependant on Turkey I say. They are a small nation and mostly investing into IT technology and newly emerging bioscience etc. They dont do much shipping.

Of course, kurds can do this. They can do use air planes for trade too. But look at map, south part of iraq is not a good place to trade with EU and It has inner conflicts.(Bad for trade.)

Kurds can survive but can they gain richness? Without trading Turkey and iran, It is impossible. We are the biggest market, Kurds can enter. Trade has relation with logistic and cost. Turkey is best candidate, not only one but best one.

Kurds are not selling any goods to any country. Because they dont have industry, but only oil and oil is transported via pipeline. They are not too dependant on Turkey.

Zurderer, buddy, you should have learned something from Ottoman past. Remember Ottomans used to control all of the trade routes in the mediterranean and taxed the merchants highly and coerced the people out of money. In the end, the trade routes were shifted to the western coast and Ottomans lost heavily. If I were Turkey, I would not play this geostrategical card very much because it may have adverse affects for you. Plus it is not certain all neighbours of Turks are going to act in the same way for suppresing Kurds as Turkey wills too. It is all about regional interests and not many countries are happy that Turkey is getting active and powerful in the region. Remember Syria kept Ocalan for how many years, Iran supported PKK etc

[zurderer]

So in a way, I am convinced that these regimes will give way to much liberal ones.
If Kurdistan becomes indenpendent, they can make trade on Armenia. Trust me, once it is independent (with the territories from Turkey, Iran etc) it will have full backing of the west. and trade relations will be done via Armenia and Georgia It is not that hard.

Uh, who said you have border with Armenia or georgia(specially georgia).. It looks like you are thinking about occupying nonkurdish areas too. Sure, It is possible. I am sure at future, something like this happen(who can know 1000 years later.). But in short or moderate run, I am not seeing such thing.

And as I said before, Not all kurds support independence. In Turkey, Majority does not support, Iran is much more worse for kurdish nationalism and I have no idea about syria..You are making a wrong to believe what you want, not what is reality.

By the way, There is a turkish proverb "If my aunt has moustache, She will be my uncle."

One million other nations' interest is beneficial, they will try to settle region in order to have secure and cheap oil supply. Oil is a strategic commodity.

Yeah. It helped iraq a lot. One million interest means, one million division in kurdistan. Or do you think, every interested party will bow barzani? Barzani cannot persuade all of them that their share is fair.

[qoute] Nowadays Armenia has been performing well. They sell their goods to Russia. Not dependant on Turkey I say. They are a small nation and mostly investing into IT technology and newly emerging bioscience etc. They dont do much shipping. [/quote]

uh. are you talking about armenia who is near to turkey? so why are armenians leaving their country? because, they are too rich. how many population armenia lost?

Kurds are not selling any goods to any country. Because they dont have industry, but only oil and oil is transported via pipeline. They are not too dependant on Turkey.

what about buying? and so you want to build a state only sell oil? do you prefer cheap commodity or do you prefer to spend your money for carrying commodity?

Zurderer, buddy, you should have learned something from Ottoman past. Remember Ottomans used to control all of the trade routes in the mediterranean and taxed the merchants highly and coerced the people out of money. In the end, the trade routes were shifted to the western coast and Ottomans lost heavily. If I were Turkey, I would not play this geostrategical card very much because it may have adverse affects for you. Plus it is not certain all neighbours of Turks are going to act in the same way for suppresing Kurds as Turkey wills too. It is all about regional interests and not many countries are happy that Turkey is getting active and powerful in the region. Remember Syria kept Ocalan for how many years, Iran supported PKK etc

Ottoman did not destroyed because of shifting trade routes. Ottomans destroyed because of their social, cultural and economic ideas. do you know, Ottomans economic idea was to promote import? Just thing about others.


It is true, there are other regional powers which does not like Turkey. They will be every time. But Turkey has good relation with almost every middle eastern country.(except somewhat iraq.)

And north iraq have bad relation with every neighbors(include iraq.) So political enemity is not turkey problem..

[Savy]

Uh, who said you have border with Armenia or georgia(specially georgia).. It looks like you are thinking about occupying nonkurdish areas too. Sure, It is possible. I am sure at future, something like this happen(who can know 1000 years later.). But in short or moderate run, I am not seeing such thing.

And as I said before, Not all kurds support independence. In Turkey, Majority does not support, Iran is much more worse for kurdish nationalism and I have no idea about syria..You are making a wrong to believe what you want, not what is reality.

I didnt mean to invade those countries. We are talking about scenarios: Turks and other neighbouring countries menace Kurds to close the borders in case a greater Kurdistan is formed (including the territories from Turkey). I think in that scenario Kurds may/can make trade via Armenian soil. A small frontier with Armenia will be enough. That is a scenario, not the reality. I am basicly saying that Kurds are not that desperate. That is all about.

Yeah. It helped iraq a lot. One million interest means, one million division in kurdistan. Or do you think, every interested party will bow barzani? Barzani cannot persuade all of them that their share is fair.

Iraq is completely another matter. The country could not complete its nationalization. You are right, it is not completely benefical for KRG; but it is beneficial in a way that oil routes will be secured by international order. That was what I meant.

uh. are you talking about armenia who is near to turkey? so why are armenians leaving their country? because, they are too rich. how many population armenia lost?

In 90s Armenia has experienced downfall of its economy, its population shrinked. Some Armenians emigrated to Russia to work. Nowadays it is performing well. Not very bad.

what about buying? and so you want to build a state only sell oil? do you prefer cheap commodity or do you prefer to spend your money for carrying commodity?

As I told earlier, under current circumstances, being part of Iraq is crucial for Kurds. They can regulate their trade on Iraq.

Ottoman did not destroyed because of shifting trade routes. Ottomans destroyed because of their social, cultural and economic ideas. do you know, Ottomans economic idea was to promote import? Just thing about others.

There are several reasons for the demise of Ottoman Empire. One of them was the shift of trade routes to Western Europe. It caused the decline of Italian merchant cities as well.

It is true, there are other regional powers which does not like Turkey. They will be every time. But Turkey has good relation with almost every middle eastern country.(except somewhat iraq.)

And north iraq have bad relation with every neighbors(include iraq.) So political enemity is not turkey problem..

Is that so Syria kept Ocalan for years? Iran giving military aid to PKK? Middle-East is a place where countries, ethnicities backstab each other you know. Nothing is certain. Alliances are formed and dissolved constantly. Who knows, best buddies will be KRG and Turkey.

[Vladimir]

Is that so Syria kept Ocalan for years? Iran giving military aid to PKK? Middle-East is a place where countries, ethnicities backstab each other you know. Nothing is certain. Alliances are formed and dissolved constantly. Who knows, best buddies will be KRG and Turkey.

That was the point of this Hurriyet article. Something I also discussed here two years ago-> http://www.peyamaazadi.org/modules.php? ... e&sid=1566.

But the problem is that there are actors that want to keep the conflict alive.

[zurderer]

[qoute] In 90s Armenia has experienced downfall of its economy, its population shrinked. Some Armenians emigrated to Russia to work. Nowadays it is performing well. Not very bad. [/quote]

Every country who lost, their one million poor population will do better at economy.. It is just better and yeah, not very bad. Just bad. Also lets not forget, who feed armenia. Diaspora.


[qoute]Is that so Syria kept Ocalan for years? Iran giving military aid to PKK? Middle-East is a place where countries, ethnicities backstab each other you know. Nothing is certain. Alliances are formed and dissolved constantly. Who knows, best buddies will be KRG and Turkey. [/qoute]

Indeed, thanks to Barzani and PKK. Now they see, Kurdish nationalism can be a threat for them too. That is why iran or syria no more support PKK. Maybe at future, It will change. But I am not sure, It will change benefit of Kurdish region.

Turkey influence is increasing at middle east, If you are following middle east politics. Turkey is returning middle east.(Until last 10 year, Turkey is just ignoring it.)

[Savy]

To what party did you vote zurderer? I must say, you are a fine person, quite clever and openminded.